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Informist, Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI – NTPC Ltd. is expected to report a year-on-year fall in bottom line for the September quarter for the first time in six quarters due to limited overall capacity addition and weak power demand, according to analysts. NTPC commissioned 660 megawatts of thermal energy capacity and 1.02 gigawatts of renewable energy during the quarter, Axis Securities said. In terms of profit, this is expected to be the worst September quarter for NTPC since it reported a 10% contraction in the September quarter of 2020.

 

NTPC is projected to report a net profit of INR 44.93 billion for the reporting quarter, down over 3% on year, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. The lowest forecast for the power generator's bottom line is INR 42.52 billion by Axis Securities, while the highest is INR 52.48 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities.

 

"We expect PAT to dip ~4-5% YoY (year-on-year) owing to limited commissioning over the last 12-15 months, weak PLF (plant load factor) in the standalone business in Q2FY26 (Jul-Sept), with weak power demand during the quarter further exacerbating issues," Nuvama Wealth Management said in a note. The September quarter is a seasonally weak period for power utility companies due to lower temperatures and lower industrial demand during the monsoon season.

 

Plant load factor measures a power plant's actual energy output relative to its maximum possible output over a specific period. This metric is expressed as a percentage. NTPC had recorded a seven-year high plant load factor of 77.44% in 2024-25 (Apr-Mar), the company said in its annual report.

 

NTPC is India's biggest power utility firm. The company supplied around 24% of India's total power demand in FY25 and has roughly 17% of India's installed capacity. NTPC generates and sells electricity from thermal, solar, hydroelectric, and wind energy sources.

 

NTPC is projected to report a top line of INR 425.12 billion for the September quarter, up 5.4% on year, according to the estimates. The projections range from INR 390.13 billion by Kotak Securities to INR 461.38 billion by Axis Securities.

 

Power demand in India grew to 449 billion units in the September quarter, up 3% from 435 billion units in the year-ago quarter.

 

As of Jun. 30, NTPC had a total installed capacity of 83 GW. The company plans to add 3.6 GW of thermal power capacity and 6.5 GW of renewable energy capacity in FY26. It had added 1.3 GW of thermal power capacity and nearly 1.4 GW of renewable energy capacity in the June quarter.

 

Analysts expect NTPC's profitability to be relatively insulated from changes in power demand, as it operates under a regulatory mechanism that ensures its returns are largely assured. The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission determines tariffs to be paid to NTPC when the company signs long-term power purchase agreements. This provides the company with long-term earnings and cash flow visibility.

 

NTPC's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation is expected to fall by over 5% on year to INR 110.65 billion, according to an average of estimates from five brokerages. Estimates for EBITDA range from INR 95.33 billion by Kotak Securities to INR 129.19 billion by Axis Securities.

 

In the trailing quarter, NTPC reported a net profit of INR 47.75 billion, up 6% on year and revenue of INR 425.73 billion, down 4 on year. Its shares have gained just over 1% since the company disclosed its June quarter financials on Jul. 29.

 

NTPC will report its September quarter earnings on Thursday. Tuesday, NTPC's shares closed 0.8% lower at INR 339.15 on the National Stock Exchange. 

 

Of the 12 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 10 have a 'buy' recommendation with an average target price of INR 400. Of the remaining two, one has a 'hold' call on the stock and the other has a 'sell' call.

 

Following are the September quarter earnings estimates for NTPC from six broking firms in descending order of estimates of net profit in INR million:

 

Broker	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	428,540	52,479	114,184
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	401,883	44,268	96,120
Sharekhan Ltd	415,300	43,900
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	453,461	43,644	118,444
Kotak Securities Ltd	390,134	42,792	95,330
Axis Securities Ltd	461,380	42,520	129,190
Average	425,116	44,934	110,654

End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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