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Informist, Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025

 

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--India Sept IIP growth 4.0% vs 3.2% year ago 
--Informist poll estimated Sept IIP growth at 3.0% 
--India Aug IIP growth revised to 4.1% vs 4.0% provisional 
--India Apr-Sept IIP growth 3.0% vs 4.1% year ago 
--India Sept mining sector output growth -0.4% vs 0.2% year ago 
--India Sept manufacturing sector output growth 4.8% vs 4.0% year ago 
--India Sept electricity sector output growth 3.1% vs 0.5% year ago 
--India Sept primary goods output growth 1.4% vs 1.8% year ago 
--India Sept capital goods output growth 4.7% vs 3.5% year ago 
--India Sept intermediate goods output growth 5.3% vs 4.3% year ago 
--India Sept infrastructure goods output growth 10.5% vs 3.5% year ago 
--India Sept consumer durables output growth 10.2% vs 6.3% year ago 
--India Sept consumer non-durables output growth -2.9% vs 2.2% year ago

 

NEW DELHI – India's industrial output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, grew 4.0% in September driven by the manufacturing sector, data released Tuesday by the statistics ministry showed. A contraction in the mining sector output, however, weighed on the headline print.

 

At 4.0%, September IIP growth was at a three-month low but still higher than expectations. Economists polled by Informist had estimated growth in industrial output at 3.0% in September. Industrial output had risen 3.2% in September 2024 and the August print was revised higher to 4.1% from 4.0% originally.

 

Factory output rose 3.0% in the first half of 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) lower than 4.1% growth seen in the same period last year. 

 

Manufacturing sector output, which has the highest weightage in the IIP, grew 4.8% in September as against 3.8% in August. Electricity sector production rose at a three-month low pace of 3.1% last month against 4.1% in August. Mining sector output fell 0.4% in September compared to a 6.6% growth in August. Mining production has contracted year-on-year in five of the last six months.

 

Within the use-based classification, five of the six categories performed better in September compared with August. Primary goods was the only segment where output grew at a slower rate in September compared with August. Growth in the output of primary goods slowed down to 1.4% last month from 5.4% in August. 

 

"Buoyed by stocking ahead of the GST (goods and services tax)-rationalization fuelled demand during the festive season, the IIP growth for the month of September 2025 remained steady at 4%, shrugging off the slowdown seen in the core sector growth," Aditi Nayar, chief economist at rating agency ICRA, said in a note. "Overall, the combination of GST rate rejig, pent-up demand and the early festive onset appears to have boosted demand in September-October 2025, which is expected to augur well for the growth in manufacturing output in October 2025 as well."

 

Growth in consumer durables rose to a 10-month-high of 10.2% in September from 3.5% in August. According to Nayar, this happened because businesses increased production to stock up to cater to increased demand owing to the GST rate rejig. Infrastructure goods' output continued to grow in double digits in September at 10.5%. Consumer non-durables was the only segment where output fell in September. It fell 2.9% last month as against 6.4% contraction in August.

 

"It may be expected that the next 3 months should be more buoyant for industry as the GST cuts would translate to higher demand which in turn should lead to increased activity in industry," Bank of Baroda Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis said.

 

The following tables detail year-on-year changes in industrial output in September:

 

 

	September 2025	August 2025	September 2024
General	4.0%	4.1%	3.2%
Mining	(-)0.4%	6.6%	0.2%
Manufacturing	4.8%	3.8%	4.0%
Electricity	3.1%	4.1%	0.5%
Primary goods	1.4%	5.4%	1.8%
Capital goods	4.7%	4.5%	3.5%
Intermediate goods	5.3%	5.2%	4.3%
Infrastructure/construction goods	10.5%	10.4%	3.5%
Consumer durables	10.2%	3.5%	6.3%
Consumer non-durables	(-)2.9%	(-)6.4%	2.2%

 

	Mining		Electricity		Manufacturing		General
	FY26	FY25	FY26	FY25	FY26	FY25	FY26	FY25
April	(-)0.2%	6.8%	1.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.2%	2.6%	5.2%
May	(-)0.1%	6.6%	(-)4.7%	13.7%	3.2%	5.1%	1.9%	6.3%
June	(-)8.7%	10.3%	(-)1.2%	8.6%	3.7%	3.5%	1.5%	4.9%
July	(-)7.2%	3.8%	3.7%	7.9%	6.0%	4.7%	4.3%	5.0%
August	6.6%	(-)4.3%	4.1%	(-)3.7%	3.8%	1.2%	4.1%	0.0%
September	(-)0.4%	0.2%	3.1%	0.5%	4.8%	4.0%	4.0%	3.2%
October		0.9%		2.0%		4.4%		3.7%
November		1.9%		4.4%		5.5%		5.0%
December		2.7%		6.2%		3.7%		3.7%
January		4.4%		2.4%		5.8%		5.2%
February		1.6%		3.6%		2.8%		2.7%
March		1.2%		7.5%		4.0%		3.9%

 

	Mining	Manufacturing	Electricity	General
FY25	3.0%	4.1%	5.2%	4.0%
FY24	7.5%	5.5%	7.1%	5.9%
FY23	5.8%	4.7%	8.9%	5.2%
FY22	12.2%	11.8%	7.9%	11.4%
FY21	(-)7.8%	(-)9.6%	(-)0.5%	(-)8.4%
FY20	1.6%	(-)1.4%	1.0%	(-)0.8%
FY19	2.9%	3.9%	5.2%	3.8%
FY18	2.3%	4.6%	5.4%	4.4%
FY17	5.3%	4.4%	5.8%	4.6%
FY16	4.3%	2.8%	5.7%	3.3%
FY15	(-)1.4%	3.8%	14.8%	4.0%
FY14	(-)0.1%	3.6%	6.1%	3.3%
FY13	(-)5.3%	4.8%	4.0%	3.3%

 

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

 

End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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