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Informist, Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025

By Sunil Raghu

AHMEDABAD - ACC Ltd. is expected to post strong year-on-year growth in its bottom line and top line for the September quarter. Similar to its peers in the cement sector, ACC is likely to see an improvement in realisations, driven by lower input costs and higher sales volumes compared with last year, despite an early and prolonged monsoon. Additionally, the cut in goods and services tax on cement to 18% from 28%, along with a break in rainfall across some regions, further supported volume growth for ACC.

Sequentially, the company's performance is expected to soften, as the September quarter is typically a seasonally weak period for cement companies in India, with monsoon rains slowing down construction activity. This year was no exception — cement demand remained subdued due to the early onset of rains, the festive season, and flooding in several states. However, some brokerages believe the September quarter could be relatively better for ACC, led by pent-up demand.

The Adani group company is expected to post a consolidated net profit of INR 3.0 billion for the September quarter, marking a 48% on-year increase, according to the average estimates from 10 brokerages. Sequentially, this represents a decline of over 21%. The highest net profit estimate is INR 4.4 billion from YES Securities Ltd. and the lowest is INR 1.9 billion from brokerage firm Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

The company's consolidated revenue for the September quarter is expected to have risen nearly 14% on year to INR 52.5 billion. Sequentially, this implies a decline of nearly 14%. The highest revenue estimate is INR 58.6 billion by YES Securities and the lowest is INR 49.8 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher.

ACC will announce its September quarter earnings Friday. In the June quarter, the company's consolidated net profit had risen 4% on year to INR 3.8 billion while revenue had jumped 18% on year to INR 60.4 billion. Sequentially, the company's bottom line had declined 50% in the June quarter and revenue was largely flat.

Brokerages estimate the company's sales volume to have increased by 4–10% during the September quarter. In the year-ago quarter, the company had recorded cement and clinker sales of 9.3 million tonnes. Motilal Oswal expects the company's blended realisations to have risen 5% on year for the September quarter while Prabhudas Lilladher projects a 2% decline. Kotak Securities also anticipates a decline in blended realisations due to price cuts implemented by the company in key markets during the quarter, even before GST rate cut announcement.

Like Kotak Securities, Prabhudas Lilladher Institutional Equities also expects subdued growth for ACC in the September quarter, citing a fall in cement prices in the southern and eastern regions even before the GST rate reduction took effect. The price fall was further driven by weak demand, as prolonged rains disrupted construction activity in these regions. Brokerages expect ACC's volume to be around 9.7 million tonnes in the September quarter, compared to 9.3 million tonnes in year-ago quarter.

ACC is expected to report earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 5.9 billion for the September quarter, as per the average of estimates from 10 brokerages. The estimates for EBITDA are in the range of INR 5.0 billion-7.9 billion. The company's EBITDA was INR 4.4 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Brokerages expect ACC's EBITDA per tonne in the September quarter to rise to INR 585-713 per tonne, primarily led by cost efficiencies and lower input costs, including the price of diesel. The company's per tonne EBITDA was INR 462 in the year-ago quarter and INR 675 in June quarter of the current financial year.

Brokerages expect demand for cement to pick up in the second half of the current financial year, compared with subdued offtake in the previous financial year. Operating expenses of cement companies are also likely to remain low, supported by a higher share of renewable energy and logistical efficiencies.

At 1335 IST, shares of ACC traded 0.1% lower at INR 1,860.10 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is down about 1.9% from Jul. 24, when the company reported its results for the June quarter. 

Of the 20 research reports on the company available with Informist, 14 have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on ACC, four have 'hold' rating, and two have a 'sell' recommendation. The average target price of the 'buy' recommendations is INR 2,241 and that of ‘sell' recommendation is INR 1,960.

The following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for ACC based from 10 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR million:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

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