More Stories

Informist, Tuesday, Oct. 28, 2025

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – State-owned NMDC Ltd. is expected to post a robust performance for the September quarter on a yearly basis due to higher sales volumes and a rise in ore prices, according to analysts. However, the company's sequential growth is likely to be disappointing due to seasonal weakness and lower sales volumes.

The iron ore major is expected to post a net profit of INR 16.97 billion for the September quarter, up around 34% on year but down nearly 14% from the trailing quarter, according to the average of estimates from seven brokerage firms. Estimates for the company's net profit range from INR 16 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd. to INR 19.1 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.

NMDC is likely to have earned revenue of INR 60.11 billion in the September quarter, according to the average of the seven estimates. The company's revenue is seen rising 25% on year but falling over 9% sequentially. Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. has the lowest estimate for the company's revenue at INR 54.99 billion, while Systematix has the highest estimate of INR 62.40 billion. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. expects NMDC's September quarter revenue to fall 11% from the trailing quarter due to a fall in sales volumes and lower prices.

NMDC sold 10.70 million tonnes of iron ore in the September quarter, up over 10% on year but down around 7% from the trailing quarter. The company had cut prices of iron ore lumps and fines by INR 600 per tonne and INR 500 per tonne, respectively, in July, but raised them by INR 400 per tonne each in August.

NMDC's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are seen rising nearly 17% on year but falling over 24% from the trailing quarter to INR 20.99 billion, according to the consensus estimate. Estimates for the company's EBITDA range from INR 19.86 billion by Kotak Securities to INR 23.20 billion by Systematix.

Nuvama Wealth Management expects a sharp rise in the iron ore major's EBITDA from the year-ago quarter due to higher sales volume and iron ore prices. It expects a 43% on-year jump in EBITDA and a 29% on-year rise in EBITDA per tonne to INR 1,917.

Even though Kotak expects a 25% on-year rise in the company's EBITDA per tonne, it expects a 15% fall from the trailing quarter due to lower realisations. As volumes ramp up in the second half of 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), "we expect NMDC to take smaller price hikes to support EBITDA growth," Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. said.

Of the 12 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 11 have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 84 and one has a 'hold' rating. At 1157 IST, shares of NMDC were 0.4% higher at INR 74.65 on the National Stock Exchange. Since reporting its June quarter earnings on Aug. 12, shares of the company have risen over 5%. The company will detail its results for the September quarter Wednesday.

For the June quarter, the company had reported a net profit of INR 19.69 billion, up 32% from the trailing quarter but down marginally on year. Its revenue had risen 23% on year but fallen around 5% sequentially to INR 66.34 billion.

Following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for NMDC from seven brokerages in descending order by the estimate of net profit:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Avishek Dutta

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.