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Informist, Monday, Oct. 27, 2025

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is expected to report a steady net profit for the September quarter as a rise in the price of aluminium was offset by lower alumina prices, according to analysts. The company's revenue is expected to decrease from a year ago on lower alumina prices but increase from the trailing quarter on a slight improvement in volumes.

The state-owned aluminium company is likely to report a standalone net profit of INR 10.61 billion for the September quarter, steady on year and also from the trailing quarter, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. The company had reported a net profit of INR 10.64 billion for the June quarter and INR 10.62 billion in the year-ago quarter. The highest estimate for the company's September-quarter net profit was INR 12.50 billion from Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. The lowest estimate was INR 7.76 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

The company's revenue for the reporting quarter is expected to fall around 2% on year to INR 39.41 billion, according to the average of the estimates. However, quarter on quarter, NALCO's revenue is expected to rise around 4%. Estimates for the company's revenue range from a low of INR 37.11 billion by Motilal Oswal to a high of INR 41.90 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

NALCO's alumina sales are seen rising 7% on year and marginally on quarter to 305,000 tonnes, according to Kotak Securities Ltd. Aluminium sales are expected to fall 5% on year but rise over 1% from the trailing quarter to 115,000 tonnes, the brokerage said. Similarly, Prabhudas Lilladher expects alumina volumes to grow 13% on year to 321,000 tonnes while it expects aluminium volumes to fall 4% on year to 116,000 tonnes. NALCO is a key producer of alumina and aluminium, selling both commodities domestically and internationally. Alumina is extracted from bauxite ore and then refined to produce aluminium.

NALCO's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the September quarter are likely to fall around 4% on year and nearly 8% from the previous quarter to INR 14.87 billion, as per the average of estimates. Estimates for the company's EBITDA range from a low of INR 11.54 billion by Motilal Oswal to a high of INR 17.11 billion by Kotak Securities.

The divergent price movements in alumina and aluminium during the reporting quarter are likely to have similarly influenced the company's EBITDA from these segments. The EBITDA from the alumina segment is expected to be INR 5.60 billion, down 16% on year and down over 3% from the trailing quarter. The aluminium segment's EBITDA is seen rising 30% on year and 26% sequentially to INR 11.5 billion, according to Kotak.

Of the nine brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, three have a "buy" or equivalent rating on the stock, five have a "hold" or equivalent rating, and one has a "reduce" rating. Market participants should await the management's guidance on domestic demand and its capital expenditure outlook, Motilal Oswal said.

Monday, shares of NALCO closed 0.8% higher at INR 237.87 on the National Stock Exchange. Since reporting its June quarter earnings on Aug. 7, the company's shares have risen 25%. The company will detail its earnings for the September quarter on Nov. 7.

The company had reported a net profit of INR 10.64 billion for the June quarter, up 77% on year but below analysts' expectations of INR 11.09 billion. Its revenue for the quarter had risen over 33% on year to INR 38.07 billion.

Following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for National Aluminium Co. Ltd. from six brokerages in descending order of net profit estimate:

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Edited by Rajeev Pai

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