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Informist, Monday, Oct. 27, 2025

 

By Sunil Raghu

 

AHMEDABAD – Ambuja Cements Ltd. is expected to report robust year-on-year growth in revenue for the September quarter. However, its net profit will be under pressure and is likely to fall, both on year and on a trailing basis, according to analysts.

 

The Adani Group cement major is expected to post a consolidated net profit of INR 5.7 billion for the September quarter, down 7.6% on year, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the net profit is likely to fall nearly 24%. The highest estimate for net profit is INR 8.9 billion from Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. while the lowest is INR 3.8 billion by HDFC Securities Ltd. The brokerages attribute this fall to an increase in operational expenses and depreciation costs.

 

The company's consolidated revenue for the reporting quarter is expected to grow nearly 21% on year to INR 91 billion, on higher volumes and a minor fall in variable costs year-on-year. Sequentially, this implies a decline of nearly 12%. The highest estimate for revenue is INR 99.9 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd. and the lowest is INR 83.8 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

 

Ambuja Cements will announce its September quarter earnings on Nov. 3. For the June quarter, Ambuja Cements had reported a consolidated net profit of INR 7.5 billion on a revenue of INR 102.9 billion.

 

Brokerages expect acquired capacities to boost the company's consolidated volumes 14–16% on year in the September quarter. A year ago, the company had recorded cement and clinker sales of 9.3 million tonnes. Brokerages estimate a 1.2–3.0% sequential fall in realisations due to weak prices. However, realisations are also expected to be higher by around 14–16% on year.

 

Ambuja Cements is expected to report earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 15.2 billion for the September quarter, as per the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. The estimates for EBITDA are in the range of INR 13.7 billion–INR 17.3 billion. In the year-ago quarter, the company's EBITDA was INR 11.1 billion. Brokerages expect the company's September quarter EBITDA per tonne to be INR 847–INR 892, against INR 684 a year ago and INR 1,026 a quarter ago.

 

Brokerages expect cement demand to pick up in the second half of the current financial year. They attribute this optimism to the 10% cut in goods and services tax on cement to 18% from Sept. 22, the end of the southwest monsoon season, and the festival period which typically boosts construction activity.

 

Monday, shares of Ambuja Cements closed nearly 1% higher at INR 560.25 per share on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is down about 6% from its closing price of INR 592.70 on Jul. 31, when the company had reported its results for the June quarter.

 

Of the 20 research reports on the company available with Informist, 17 have a "buy" or equivalent rating on Ambuja Cements, two have a "hold" rating, and one has a "sell" recommendation. The average target price of the buy recommendations is INR 667 per share.

 

The following are the Jul-Sept. earnings estimates for Ambuja Cements, in INR million, from 12 brokerages in descending order of net profit estimate:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.	87,684	8,890	14,221
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.	88,000	7,500	15,300
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	96,543	7,171	15,934
YES Securities (India) Ltd.	99,937	6,619	17,343
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	83,835	6,472	5,054
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	95,033	5,567	16,097
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	94,233	5,475	16,875
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	88,601	4,137	13,710
Sharekhan Ltd.	88,600	4,100	--
Kotak Securities Ltd.	91,110	4,098	14,529
ICICI Securities Ltd.	90,497	4,025	14,698
HDFC Securities Ltd.	87,658	3,830	14,248
Average	90,977.58	5,657	15,154.73

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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