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Informist, Monday, Oct. 27, 2025

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – State-owned Steel Authority of India Ltd. is expected to report a sharp fall in its net profit or possibly even a loss in the September quarter due to a fall in steel prices and lower realisations, according to analysts. The steel major's top line is seen improving slightly year-on-year due to higher sales volumes.

SAIL is expected to post a standalone net profit of INR 2.57 billion for the September quarter, down over 69% on year and around 63% from the previous quarter, according to the average of estimates from eight brokerage firms. The highest estimate for the company's net profit was INR 7.62 billion by YES Securities (India) Ltd. and the lowest estimate was INR 630 million by Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd.

However, the steel behemoth could also report a net loss in the September quarter, as per three brokerages. Estimates for net loss are INR 10 billion, INR 332 million, and INR 100 million by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd., Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., and Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd., respectively.

SAIL is likely to have earned revenues of INR 254.71 billion in the September quarter, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. The company's revenue is seen rising over 3% on year but falling around 2% sequentially. Estimates for the company's revenue range from a low of INR 243.59 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. to a high of INR 274.02 billion by YES Securites.

The steel major's sales volumes are expected to rise 15% on year and around 4% over the trailing quarter, according to Kotak Securities Ltd. Brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher expects the sales volumes to increase 17% on year to 4.8 million tonnes "aided by NMDC trading volumes". It also expects 7-8% on-year growth in the company's own sales volumes. SAIL markets some hot-rolled steel products made by NMDC Steel Ltd.

A rise in saleable steel sales during the reporting quarter is expected to offset the impact of lower realisations, according to YES Securities. The company reported 1.67 million tonnes and 1.66 million tonnes of saleable steel sales in July and August, respectively, and is on track to achieve around 5.0 million tonnes in the September quarter, up nearly 10% on year, the brokerage said.

The steel behemoth's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the September quarter are pegged at INR 19.63 billion, down over 38% on year and around 33% sequentially, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerage firms. Estimates for the company's EBITDA range from INR 8.00 billion to INR 29.29 billion. All brokerages barring YES Securities expect the company's EBITDA to fall because of a drop in steel prices and lower realisations.

Kotak Securities expects the company's steel realisations to fall by 6% on year and around 7% from the trailing quarter. SAIL is "positioned for a fall in profitability due to a sharper fall in long steel prices", which decreased by 4% on year and 7% sequentially, brokerage Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. said in a report. "SAIL to witness margin contraction led by a sharper fall in long steel prices during the quarter" the brokerage said. The company produces a wide range of steel products, including long steel products such as bars and rods.

The company will detail its September quarter earnings Wednesday. Investors and analysts will track the company's guidance on capacity expansion and debt reduction, analysts said. At 1355 IST, shares of SAIL were trading 0.6% higher at INR 130.17 on the National Stock Exchange. Since reporting its June quarter earnings on Jul. 25, shares of the company have fallen around 1%.

Of the 13 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, three have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on the stock, eight have a 'hold' or equivalent rating with an average target price of INR 129, and two have a 'sell' rating.

For the June quarter, the company's net profit had risen more than sixty-fold on year to INR 6.85 billion, mainly because of a lower base in the year-ago quarter when the company had incurred a one-time loss of INR 3.12 billion. In the trailing quarter, the company's revenue had risen over 8% on year to INR 259.21 billion.

The following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for SAIL from 11 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit and then net loss:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

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