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Informist, Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025

By Narayana Krishna

HYDERABAD - Improved sales in its biologics business and traction in generics are likely to help Biocon Ltd. report high double-digit revenue growth for the September quarter, according to analysts. The ramp-up of the autoimmune biosimilar drug Stelara in the US and launch of the diabetes drug Liraglutide in the UK and other European markets are also expected to help the company's performance for the quarter.

Bengaluru-based Biocon is a biopharmaceutical company focused on biologics, generics, and contract manufacturing and development organisation businesses. Biocon Biologics Ltd., the core subsidiary of the company, contributes nearly 60% of Biocon's consolidated earnings. Its listed arm, Syngene International Ltd., provides contract research, development, and manufacturing services.

Biocon is projected to report consolidated revenue of INR 41.9 billion for the September quarter, up 17% on year, according to the average of estimates from five brokerages. The company is expected to report a net profit of INR 850 million for the latest quarter, against a net loss of INR 420 million a year ago. The company reported a net loss in the year-ago quarter due to tax-related expenses and plant shutdowns. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Biocon's net profit is seen rising 171% due to a low base, while revenue is expected to be up 6%.

The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 1.4 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd., while the lowest estimate is INR 337 million from JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd. Revenue estimates range from a high of INR 43.8 billion by ICICI Securities Ltd. to a low of INR 40.7 billion by JM Financial. Biocon will announce its September quarter earnings on Nov. 11.

Bullish on Biocon's earnings performance for the quarter, Nuvama projected the company's biosimilar sales to touch $295 million, driven by market share gains for the Stelara drug in the US. Nuvama expects Biocon's generic segment sales to rise 18% on year to $88 million, while it expects Syngene's sales to grow 1% on year to $108 million.

Biologics sales are expected to rise 19% on year due to a low base, new launches, and better traction in existing products, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said. The brokerage expects Syngene's revenue to grow 4% on year. Improved sales in emerging markets and market share gains for Stelara in the US are likely to help Biocon's biologics revenue reach $298 million, according to Kotak Institutional Equities. The brokerage expects 14% on-year growth in biologics sales for the quarter.

After a subdued earnings performance in the June quarter due to higher operating costs, Biocon's gross margin for the September quarter is expected to improve 200 basis points to 66.4%, while earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation margin may rise 210 bps to 21.2%, according to Kotak. With improved contributions from research services and biologics margins, Biocon's latest quarter EBITDA margin is expected to increase 180 basis points on year to 21%, Nuvama said.

The average of estimates from five brokerages pegs Biocon's Jul-Sept EBITDA at INR 8.5 billion. The estimates range between INR 8.0 billion and INR 8.9 billion.

Of the 12 research reports on the company available with Informist, nine have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 399, while one has a 'hold' rating on the stock with a target price of INR 365, and two have a 'sell' rating with an average price target of INR 308.

The stock has fallen 1.3% since the announcement of its June quarter earnings on Aug. 7. On Friday, the company's shares ended at INR 359.50 on the National Stock Exchange, up 0.7% from its previous close. 

Following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for Biocon Ltd. from five brokerage firms in the descending order by the estimate of net profit:

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US$1 = INR 87.85

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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