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Informist, Thursday, Oct. 23, 2025

 

By Rajesh Gajra

 

NEW DELHI - Metals to oil and gas to electricity conglomerate Vedanta Ltd. is expected to report weak to moderate growth in consolidated bottom line and top line for the September quarter. The company's aluminium segment posted marginal on-year growth in production volume in the September quarter. However, a rise in base metal prices will offset the low volume growth, according to analysts. The oil and gas segment of Vedanta is expected to post an on-year decline in volume as well as in operating profit.

 

In its India zinc segment, which is predominantly the operations of the company's listed subsidiary Hindustan Zinc Ltd., the earnings numbers for the September quarter were reported by the subsidiary Friday. Vedanta holds 61.8% stake in Hindustan Zinc, which produces not just zinc but also lead and silver.

 

Vedanta will likely report a consolidated net profit of INR 36.4 billion for the reporting quarter, according to an average of estimates by five brokerages. This estimate for net profit represents a jump of 47% on year from the net profit of INR 24.8 billion in the year-ago quarter, excluding exceptional items. It is, however, down by 16% from the reported net profit of INR 43.5 billion in the year-ago quarter which included net one-time gains of INR 18.7 billion due to reversal of impairments of INR 23.6 billion in the oil and gas segment. Sequentially, the net profit is seen up 14%. The company is seen reporting revenues of INR 380.6 billion, up just 1.1% on year and 0.6% on quarter.

 

These September quarter consolidated earnings estimates were made before subsidiary Hindustan Zinc reported its September quarter numbers. Hindustan Zinc reported a net profit of INR 26.3 billion for the September quarter, up 15% on year on year, and above the Street view of INR 25.1 billion. The Indian zinc subsidiary's revenue from operations was INR 85.3 billion in the latest quarter, up 3.4% on year, and above the Street's expectation of INR 82.2 billion.

 

Around 40% of Vedanta's consolidated net profit comes from Hindustan Zinc. The subsidiary contributed 43% to Vedanta's consolidated bottom line in 2024-25 (Apr-Mar), back-of-the-envelope calculations showed.

 

Vedanta's total aluminium production increased 1.3% on year to 617,000 tonnes in the September quarter, which was lower than the 1.5% on-year growth in the trailing quarter and the second-lowest growth in the last four quarters, according to data reported by the company early October. This production growth was low and "not reflective of capex on expansions" at the company's Jharsuguda facility and at subsidiary Bharat Aluminium Co. Ltd., overseas research firm Viceroy Research said in a report.

 

The revenue growth in the aluminium segment is expected to be supported by a 10% on-year rise in prices in the September quarter. The average aluminium price in the September quarter was $2,620 per tonne, up 10% from $2,381 per tonne in the year-ago quarter, Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) said.

 

Higher aluminium prices, and lower alumina prices, will drive a 28% on-year jump in Vedanta's aluminium segment earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, Kotak Securities said. In the oil and gas business, the EBITDA will likely decline 20% on quarter on lower volumes, Kotak Securities said.

 

The consolidated EBITDA is expected to be INR 109.8 billion for the September quarter, according to an average of estimates by the five brokerages. "Strong LME (London Metal Exchange) prices to offset the weak volume impact and support stable margins" for Vedanta in the reporting quarter, brokerage Motilal Oswal said.

 

Vedanta has not yet announced the date for declaring the September quarter results. Investors will watch out for management commentary on the status of the demerger of its aluminium, iron and steel, oil and gas, and power businesses and debt situation pertaining to the parent company, brokerage Motilal Oswal said.

 

With regard to ongoing legal disputes pertaining to the demerger scheme, the National Company Law Tribunal, in its latest order on Oct. 17, directed Talwandi Sabo Power Ltd., one of the resulting companies from the proposed demerger scheme, to hold a meeting with secured and unsecured creditors. The NCLT order said there are two secured creditors with claims of around INR 65.5 billion and many unsecured creditors with claims of around INR 2.4 billion.

 

On Thursday, shares of Vedanta closed 1.6% higher at INR 483.25 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is currently up around 13% from the company's June quarter earnings announced on Jul. 31. In the June quarter, Vedanta had reported a fall of 12% on year in its consolidated net profit to INR 31.9 billion, even as revenue from operations increased 5.8% on year to INR 378.2 billion. Higher cost of materials consumed had proved to be a drag on the earnings.

 

Of the eight brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, six have a 'buy' call on the stock at an average target price of INR 534, one has a 'hold' recommendation, and one has a 'sell' call for a target price of INR 435.

 

Following are the September quarter earnings estimates for Vedanta from five brokerage firms in descending order of estimate of net profit:

 

Brokerage	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
	(In INR million)
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	396,742	42,986	1,15,895
Kotak Securities Ltd	391,484	41,212	1,10,088
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd	376,600	38,500	1,14,700
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	375,189	38,018	1,13,523
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	362,872	21,181	94,892
Average	380,577	36,379	1,09,820

 

End

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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