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Informist, Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025

By Gopika Balasubramanium

MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices and broader market indices are likely to perform better in Samvat 2082, backed by a revival in Indian corporate earnings growth-aided strong domestic macroeconomic factors such as falling inflation, lower repo rate, robust monsoon, and lower goods and services tax rates, analysts said. They also said that the growth-inductive measures adopted by the government and Reserve Bank of India will begin yielding results boosting earnings growth in Oct-Mar. However, there are concern about higher valuations and only select pockets are fairly valued, analysts said.

"Over Samvat 2081, Nifty (50) till date returned mid-single digit gains, reversing a weak FY25 (2024-25 (Apr-Mar))earnings trend that now appears to be bottoming out, indicating a more constructive setup for Samvat 2082," said Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research at Ventura Securities, in a note. He said the 50-stock index is currently trading at 18 times forward price-to-earnings multiple, slightly above its average of 17 times, indicating that downside is largely limited. Hence, Bolinjkar expects the Nifty 50 to improve from the current levels.

"Key drivers for this potential upside include a domestic consumption-driven earnings revival from Q3FY26 (Oct-Mar), a possible US–India trade deal, and fiscal and monetary support, including rate cuts and increased government capex," he said. "We are targeting 27,600 for the Nifty (50) in the next Samvat," he said, adding that similarly, "we expect the Sensex to reach 90,100 during the same period."

In the coming year, investors are expected to closely monitor developments on India-US trade deal, trends in India's export diversification, the government's budget for the next financial year, rupee appreciation, and earnings growth across large-cap companies along with small- and mid-cap companies. While there are expectation that Nifty 50 companies will post strong earnings growth in the next couple of quarters, some analysts are unsure whether that will be the case, as a pickup in consumption will take some more time.       

During the one-hour Muhurat trading session, the Nifty 50 and Sensex notched new one-year highs. However, these indices came off highs and closed largely flat on the back of likely profit-booking as indicated by analysts. Some analysts said profit-booking trend may spill over to the next few trading sessions due to the sharp gains in the recent few sessions. The Nifty 50 closed at 25868.60 points, up 25.45 points or 0.1%, extending gains for the fifth straight session. Now, the index has to climb 400 more points to breach its all-time high. 

The market will hit new record levels only if there is clarity that the rise in consumption has actually contributed to grwoth in top line and bottom line of companies, said Ankit Dharamshi, associate director and fund manager at RNM India said. "So, I am very confident that we are not crossing (all-time high) until and unless we get a confirmation in Q3 (Oct-Dec)," Dharamshi said." We can achieve 26800 if Q3 (Oct-Dec) results are good," he said, adding that,"I mean, next year, we should be looking at new high, the way things are going."  End

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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