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Informist, Monday, Oct. 20, 2025

BY Shreya Shetty

MUMBAI – Supreme Industries Ltd.'s consolidated net profit for the September quarter is likely to take a hit due to low volume growth. Volatility in the prices of polyvinyl chloride resin dampened demand and kept channel inventory low. Additionally, an extended monsoon also hit demand, especially in the agri-pipes segment, analysts said.

Prices of PVC resin remained volatile throughout 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), particularly with the delay in the implementation of anti-dumping duties on PVC resin. After falling for the first two months, these prices have been steadily rising. Prices of PVC rose 5% sequentially for the September quarter, analysts said. Despite rise in prices, the company did not see any inventory gains as the benefits have been passed on to the channel partners amid heightened competitive intensity, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. said. 

Supreme Industries is expected to post a consolidated net profit of INR 1.97 billion for the September quarter, down nearly 5% from a year ago, according to the average of estimates from seven brokerage firms. The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 2.42 billion from ICICI Securities Ltd. and the lowest estimate is INR 1.75 billion from IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd. 

The company's consolidated revenue for the latest quarter is expected to rise over 3% to INR 23.49 billion, according to the average of the estimates. The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 24.09 billion from IDBI Capital Market Services and the lowest estimate is INR 22.17 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd. 

Sequentially, the company's net profit is expected to fall nearly 3% and its revenue is seen down almost 10%. For the June quarter, the company had reported a consolidated net profit of INR 2.02 billion on revenue of INR 26.09 billion. 

                                                                                                      However, the company is likely to have outperformed most of its peers during the September quarter on competitive pricing and a lower base, analysts said. The slight growth in revenue comes on the back of a 12.5% on-year uptick in blended volume, along with a 15% on-year growth in pipe volume on a low base, ICICI Securities said.

The growth in pipe volumes includes the volumes from Wavin Industries Ltd., whose pipes and fittings business Supreme had acquired in August, along with two wholly-owned subsidiaries of Wavin Industries – Wavin India Pipes and Fittings Manufacturing Pvt. Ltd. and Wavin India Holdings Pvt. Ltd. With this acquisition, Supreme Industries now has 33 manufacturing units.

Supreme Industries is expected to report consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 3.24 billion, according to the average of estimates. The company's EBITDA was INR 3.19 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Of the seven brokerage firms tracking the company, three expect EBITDA to rise on-year, three forecast a decline, and one projects it to remain flat. The rise in raw material prices is likely to contract the EBITDA margin by 100 basis-points on year to 13%, IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd. said. However, the company's better performance compared to peers—driven by passing on price benefits to channel partners amid intense competition—is expected to boost its EBITDA margin by 120 basis points on year to 15.2%, Nuvama said.

Restocking across channel is likely to pick up once PVC resin prices stabilise, aided by regulatory tailwinds such as the implementation of anti-dumping duties on PVC resin and the Bureau of Indian Standards quality controls on PVC, JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. said. Though it was proposed on Aug. 14, the anti-dumping duty is yet to be imposed. Meanwhile, the implementation of the quality controls has been postponed to Dec. 24, which marks a third such extension since December 2024.

The company will announce its September quarter earnings on Oct. 27. On Monday, shares of Supreme Industries closed 0.4% lower at INR 4,192.90 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has fallen over 1% since Jul. 24 when the company detailed its June quarter earnings. The company's consolidated net profit for the June quarter had fallen 26% on year to INR 2.02 billion and its revenue had fallen more than 1% on year to INR 26.09 billion.

Of the 15 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, nine have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on the stock, with an average target price of INR 4,654. Five have a 'hold' rating on the stock, with an average target price of INR 3,893, while one has a 'sell' rating on the stock.

Following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates of Supreme Industries Ltd. from seven brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR million:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

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