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Informist, Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025

 

--Nomura retains Nifty 50 target of 26140 points for March 2026 

--Nomura: See mid-single-digit risk to current consensus earnings estimate 

--Nomura: Cyclical slowdown in earnings is likely to sustain in near term 

--Nomura: Expect FY27 earnings to show modest recovery 

--Nomura: Consumption stimulus only marginally positive for markets 

--Nomura: Weak household sentiment may dent consumption stimulus effect 

--Nomura: Valuations not compelling enough for strong FII inflows near term 

 

MUMBAI – The Nifty 50 is expected to rise only 3% in the next six months, according to estimates by Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities that retained its March 2026 target of the Nifty 50 at 26140 points. If the Nifty 50 rises only 3% in the next six months, it would imply a return of just over 11% in 2025-26 (Apr-Mar). At 1044 IST, the Nifty 50 was at 25460 points.

 

Nomura pointed to several risks related to earnings growth and flows in its latest strategy report. It said the consumption stimulus, likely referring to the cuts in goods and services tax, will only be "marginally positive" for the market and have a "short-term positive" effect on some segments. 

 

The brokerage firm is worried that weak household sentiment may limit the multiplier effect of GST cuts. Household sentiment is weak due to global uncertainties, weak gowth in jobs and wages, and low savings, Nomura said.

 

Owing to this, there is a risk that consensus earnings estimate may see a cut of mid-single digit, Nomura said. It expects slowdown in earnings growth to continue in the near term and sees only a modest recovery in growth in 2026-27 (Apr-Mar).  

 

The brokerage firm acknowledged that the Indian market has underperformed compared with other global peers over a year and but also justified this underpeformance considering high valuations and earnings slowdown in India. "The valuations aren't compelling enough for strong FII inflows in the near term," it said.

 

The brokerage firm is positive on financials, consumer staples, consumer durables, automobile, cement, pharmaceutical, telecommunication, and real estate sectors. At the same time, it has a cautious stance on infrastructure, capital goods, metals, and healthcare services.  End

 

Reported by Anshul Choudhary

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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