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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – After a challenging June quarter, Hindustan Zinc Ltd. is expected to post a recovery in the September quarter mainly because of higher prices of base metals, according to analysts. While the company's bottom line is expected to rise sharply on year, its revenue from operations may only rise slightly due to lower sales volumes.

The Vedanta group company is expected to post a net profit of INR 24.93 billion in the September quarter, up around 9% on year and up over 13% from the previous quarter, according to the average of estimates from five brokerage firms. Estimates for the company's net profit range from INR 24.05 billion by YES Securities (India) Ltd. to INR 25.56 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.

Hindustan Zinc, one of the largest producers of zinc and silver globally, is likely to have earned revenue of INR 83.29 billion in the September quarter, according to the average of brokerage estimates. The company's revenue is seen rising 1% on year and nearly 8% sequentially. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. has the lowest estimate for the company's revenue at INR 80.98 billion while Kotak Institutional Equities has the highest estimate of INR 84.88 billion.

The average prices of zinc rose over 7% sequentially in the September quarter while prices of lead rose 1%. The average price of silver during the quarter rose around 18% from the June quarter and surged to record highs in the domestic market. YES Securities said the surge in silver prices has likely offset the impact of lower volumes.

In an update earlier this month, Hindustan Zinc said it produced 258,000 tonnes of mined metals in Jul-Sept, up 1% on year but down 3% on quarter. Saleable metal production fell 6% on year and 1% from the previous quarter to 246,000 tonnes in the September quarter.

Production of refined zinc was flat on quarter but up 2% on year at 202,000 tonnes for the September quarter. Production of refined lead was down 29% on year and 7% on quarter at 45,000 tonnes. The company's saleable silver production was 144 tonnes during the quarter, down 22% on year and 4% on quarter. With an on-year fall in production of these metals, Kotak Securities expects a similar decline in sales volumes during the quarter.

Hindustan Zinc's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are seen rising around 4% sequentially and 12% on year to INR 43.22 billion, according to the consensus estimate. All brokerages expect the company's EBITDA to increase due to higher prices for zinc and silver. Nuvama expects the company's EBITDA to rise 15% sequentially despite subdued volumes as "earnings are likely to be driven by rise in zinc/silver prices". Estimates for the company's EBITDA range from INR 41.60 billion by YES Securities to INR 44.07 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management.

Meanwhile, the company's cost of production for zinc, excluding royalty, for the September quarter is expected to rise 1% sequentially to $1,025 per tonne, according to Nuvama.

Of the seven brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, four have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on the stock, two have a 'hold' or equivalent rating, and one has a 'reduce' rating. Among these, the average target price for the 'buy' rating is INR 550.

On Wednesday, shares of Hindustan Zinc closed 1.5% higher at INR 513.20 on the National Stock Exchange. Since reporting its June quarter earnings on Jul. 18, shares of the company have risen around 18%. The company will detail its September quarter earnings Friday.

In a post-earnings conference call with analysts in July, the company had said it was confident of achieving its target of producing 700-710 tonnes of silver in 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) despite lower output in the June quarter. Investors and analysts will track the company's guidance on volumes, realisations, cost of production, and future dividend payout, according to Motilal Oswal.

For the June quarter, the company had reported a net profit of INR 22.04 billion, down over 6% on year and 26% sequentially. Its revenue had fallen 5% on year and 15% sequentially to INR 77.23 billion.

Following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for Hindustan Zinc from five brokerages in descending order by the estimate of net profit:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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