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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

 

By Anand JC

 

NEW DELHI – Reliance Industries Ltd. is expected to report double-digit year-on-year growth in net profit for the September quarter, driven by the strong performance of its telecommunications, retail, and oil-to-chemicals segments, despite a weak show by its upstream oil business, according to analysts. They expect the operating profit of the company's main oil-to-chemicals segment to report sizeable growth on account of higher refining margins and increased refinery throughput.

 

Reliance Industries is expected to report a consolidated top line of INR 2.468 trillion for the September quarter, up close to 7% on year, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. The estimates do not vary widely--the projection of INR 2.218 trillion by Nuvama Wealth Management is the lowest and that of INR 2.577 trillion by Nomura Equity Research is the highest. In the same quarter a year ago, the company's profit of INR 165 billion was down nearly 3% on year while its revenue of INR 2.315 trillion had barely grown.

 

Reliance Industries earns revenue from its oil-to-chemicals, oil and gas, and consumer businesses, including telecom and retail. The Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate will announce its September quarter results Friday. The company's shares have fallen a little over 7% since it announced its June quarter results on Jul. 15. The benchmark Nifty 50 has edged up a bit in the same period.

 

The company is expected to report consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, excluding other income, of INR 444.78 billion, up around 14% on year. The EBITDA projection of INR 457.72 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services is the highest. The forecast of INR 437.54 billion by Kotak Institutional Equities is the lowest.

 

SEGMENTAL PERFORMANCE

The oil-to-chemicals business, which accounted for just over 60% of the Reliance Industries top line for the June quarter, is likely to report robust growth in EBITDA for the September quarter. Nuvama expects the segment's EBITDA to grow 20% on year, primarily driven by a 13% on-year increase in the benchmark Singapore gross refining margin and a 52% on-year rise in diesel crack spread. The Singapore gross refining margin acts as a proxy for the profitability of refiners in the Asia-Pacific region. The diesel crack spread is the difference between the price of diesel and the price of crude oil.

 

This segment is forecast to report 4% sequential growth in EBITDA for the September quarter to INR 150.20 billion due to higher spreads for diesel and jet fuel and higher refinery throughput, according to Nomura. In the September quarter last year, the segment had reported an EBITDA of INR 124.13 billion.

 

The retail segment of Reliance Industries is its second-largest business vertical. Reliance Retail Ventures Ltd. had contributed about 34% to the company's revenue for the June quarter. Analysts expect the segment's EBITDA to report growth of 11-14% on year for the September quarter. Motilal Oswal expects the segment's EBITDA to grow 14% on year to around INR 67 billion due to a weak base, an early festival season, and the scaling up of new categories such as quick commerce and fast-moving consumer goods. The EBITDA of Reliance's retail segment for the year-ago quarter was INR 58.50 billion.

 

Reliance Industries is the market leader in the telecommunications space through Reliance Jio Infocomm. This segment's EBITDA is expected to grow 14-16% on year and around 3% on quarter, according to analysts. The sequential growth will be driven primarily by a modest increase in average revenue per user to INR 212 in the September quarter from INR 209 in the June quarter and INR 195.1 a year ago, Nomura said. It could also benefit from a strong increase in end-of-period subscriber base, which is the final count of subscribers at the close of the reporting period, excluding the subscribers lost.

 

Analysts have forecast a 6-7% on-year fall in the oil and gas segment's EBITDA owing to a fall in production from the Krishna-Godavari Dhirubhai 6 block. The segment's EBITDA for the September quarter last year was INR 52.90 billion.

 

All 15 research reports on the company available with Informist have a "buy" rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,647 per share. Shares of the company closed marginally lower Wednesday at INR 1,374.30 on the National Stock Exchange.

 

The following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for Reliance Industries, in INR million, from 11 brokerages, in descending order of net profit:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
YES Securities (India) Ltd.	2,528,633	213,902	446,153
HDFC Securities Ltd.	2,509,000	210,000	455,000
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	2,466,848	202,172	457,719
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	2,354,800	184,600	439,500
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	2,500,994	183,848	444,566
Kotak Institutional Equities	2,575,889	182,615	437,536
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.	2,486,590	181,453	440,390
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	2,491,797	181,120	440,184
Nomura Equity Research	2,577,000	181,000	444,000
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	2,218,250	180,850	448,061
ICICI Securities Ltd.	2,445,700	178,700	439,500
Average	2,468,682	189,115	444,783

 

End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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