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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025

MUMBAI - Following are the highlights of the minutes of the Sept. 29-Oct. 1 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, released by the central bank on Wednesday:

SANJAY MALHOTRA

* High frequency data show economic growth likely to stay strong in Q2

* External demand likely to stay lukewarm on trade, tariff woes

* Growth strong by current reckoning, but outlook softer

* Growth strong by current reckoning, but below our aspirations

* Benign headline, core CPI outlook gives space to aid growth

* RBI, govt policies should help economic growth going ahead

* Tariff-related uncertainties still evolving

* Rate cut in Oct policy not opportune time, despite space

* Avoided rate cut in Oct as it will not have desirable impact

* Intent of policy is to facilitate growth-enabling conditions

* Accommodative stance equates to giving definitive forward guidance

* Foggy outlook suggests that we exercise caution

NAGESH KUMAR

* External context for economy changed dramatically since Aug MPC meet
* GDP growth view revision doesn't factor in shock faced after Q1
* Private investment remained sluggish in Q1 despite healthy profits
* No room for complacency as the future looks uncertain
* Trade policy steps adopted by US pose economic challenge for India
* Trump administration delivered comprehensive assault on India
* GDP growth hit from US tariff may be limited to 40-60 bps
* See larger impact on MSMEs, jobs from US tariffs than GDP hit
* Diversification of export markets beyond US is need of the hour
* GST reforms should help charge domestic consumption engine
* GST reforms likely to push CPI inflation down, below 2.6% in FY26
* Benign inflation outlook opens policy space for monetary action
* Need to see trade policy impact before considering Dec rate cut
* Must gauge transmission of past MPC steps before mulling Dec rate cut
* Must signal readiness of monetary policy to support industry
* Want accommodative stance to show MPC's readiness to aid industry
* Pre-emptive action like liquidity provision for MSMEs important
* Pre-emptive action like credit guarantees for MSMEs important

SAUGATA BHATTACHARYA

* Trade, tariff uncertainties remain risk to growth, investment
* Moderation in CPI not compelling reason to cut rate
* Domestic financial conditions remain easy, largely balanced
* Need to monitor fiscal, monetary, financial, trade steps impact
* Don't see need for rate cut amid current economic conditions

RAM SINGH

* Case for another rate cut has become stronger since Aug meet
* Vote for pause due to fiscal steps, earlier easing still working
* Vote for pause as external uncertainty looming large
* Inflation trajectory looks benign at least for next 2 quarters
* Inflation may top 4% aim in FY27 on unfavourable base, demand boost
* Core inflation expected to be elevated but contained
* Q2 GDP growth seen holding up amid mixed high-frequency data
* Current inflation too low, not conducive for companies, public finances
* Low CPI, lower H2 growth view make case for additional rate cut

* US tariffs, global uncertainty support additional rate cut space
* Further rate cut now runs risk of an overdose

POONAM GUPTA

* India on its way to attain 6.5-7.0% growth in FY26, FY27
* Proactive policy adding strength to economy amid global challenges
* Private capex would've been up if not for adverse global conditions
* Inflation outlook more benign post GST rate cuts
* FY26 6.8% growth view factors in tariff, GST rate rejig impact
* Growth seen much higher in H1 vs H2 FY26
* Slower H2 growth, low CPI likely opened space to cut rates more

* Difficult for me to vote for a rate cut at this juncture
* Recent govt steps boosted demand, still working their way through
* Prudent to see impact of govt steps before supportive growth steps

* 100 bps rate cut currently being transmitted through the system
* A rate cut at this time may only be marginally effective
* Depleting policy ammunition not warranted until global clarity
* Neutral stance doesn't prevent rate cut, don't need stance change
* Won't be able to commit to new stance amid global uncertainty

INDRANIL BHATTACHARYYA

* Growth likely to remain buoyant in Jul-Sept
* Current ultra-low inflation transitory phenomenon
* Amid uncertainty, rate cut now may not have intended impact
* Rate cut may surprise market, which is detrimental to credibility
* Accommodative stance now can be seen as explicit forward guidance

End

Compiled by Akash Tirlotkar

Filed by Ashish Shirke

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