Weather Forecast
Brief La Nina conditions likely in Nov-Jan, says Korea's APEC Climate Center
This story was originally published at 13:50 IST on 15 October 2025
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MUMBAI – A brief La Nina event is likely during Nov-Jan as the APEC Climate Center's El Nino-Southern Oscillation outlook is currently in "La Nina Watch", the Korean institute said in its monthly report on climate outlook for Nov-Apr. Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are likely to return post January, it said.
Chances of a La Nina event during Nov-Jan stand at 60.1% while chances of neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions increase to 50.5% for the rest of the forecast period, the centre said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is expected to be (-)0.86 degrees Celsius in November, before making a slow climb back to 0.22 degrees Celsius in April. For La Nina to emerge, surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius. For El Nino, temperatures should be at or above 0.5 degrees Celsius.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.
The climate centre sees a "tendency" of above-normal rainfall in India from November to January. There is a "strongly-enhanced" probability of above-normal temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Himalayan region, while there is an "enhanced" probability of near-normal temperatures in the western tropical Indian Ocean, the centre said.
The India Meteorological Department has forecast above-normal rainfall over southern India at 112% of the long-period average during Oct-Dec. The weather agency said there is a 71% chance of La Nina conditions forming during Oct-Dec.
Negative sea surface temperature anomalies are expected along the equator from November to January, with indications of further weakening during the rest of the forecast period, the APEC Climate Center said. A negative anomaly refers to cooler-than-average temperatures on the ocean's surface and a positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature is warmer than the reference value. End
Reported by Shreya Shetty
Edited by Nishant Maher
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