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Informist, Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The International Energy Agency has further raised its forecast for growth in global oil supply for both 2025 and 2026 following another supply hike by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. The agency also lowered its forecast for growth in global oil demand for 2025.

 

The Paris-based intergovernmental organisation expects global oil supply to rise by 3.0 million barrels per day to 106.1 million barrels per day in 2025, the agency said in its Oil Market Report for October. It was previously forecast at 2.7 million barrels per day. In 2026, the agency expects global oil supply to rise by 2.4 million barrels per day from its previous projection of a rise of 2.1 million barrels per day. Global oil demand is now expected to rise by around 700,000 barrels per day this year, down from the agency's previous forecast of 740,000 barrels per day.

 

Non-OPEC nations are expected to add 1.6 million barrels per day and 1.2 million barrels per day of oil to the global market in 2025 and 2026, respectively, led by the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina. OPEC and its allies are expected to add 1.4 million barrels per day of oil in 2025 and 1.2 million barrels per day next year, it said. "Risks to the forecast remain, with sanctions imposed on Russia and Iran compounding geopolitical concerns," the agency said.

 

Global oil supply rose by 760,000 barrels per day from the previous month to 108 million barrels per day in September, as production by OPEC and allies surged by 1 million barrels per day. Global oil supply in September rose by 5.6 million barrels per day on year. OPEC and allies accounted for 3.1-million-barrel-per-day of the increase. 

 

"The oil market has been in surplus since the start of the year, but stock builds have so far been concentrated in crude in China and gas liquids in the United States. By September, however, a surge in Middle East (West Asia) production, coinciding with seasonally lower regional crude demand, boosted exports to two and a half-year highs," IEA said. This, combined with robust flows from the Americas, increased oil on water in September by a massive 102 million barrels, equivalent to 3.4 million barrels per day, the largest increase since the COVID-19 pandemic, it added.

 

Global oil demand rose by 750,000 barrels per day on year in Jul-Sept led by a rise in petrochemical demand. "Still, oil use will remain subdued over the remainder of 2025 and in 2026, resulting in annual gains forecast at around 700 kb/d (thousand barrels per day) in both years. This is well below historical trend, as a harsher macro climate and transport electrification make for a sharp deceleration in oil consumption growth," the agency said.

 

Global observed oil inventories rose by a further 17.7 million barrels in August to a four-year high of 7.91 billion barrels. Total inventories of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development rose by 22 million barrels, and non-OECD by 4 million barrels, supported by rising Chinese crude inventories.

 

Crude oil prices were little changed in September, "as a looming supply surplus dampened the bullish impact of heightened Ukraine tensions and fresh sanctions against Russia and Iran," IEA said. Global oil balances have seen a 1.9-million-barrel-per-day surplus since the start of 2025, yet crude oil prices have fluctuated around $70 per barrel so far in 2025.

 

At 1431 IST, the price of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was 2.2% lower at $61.93 per barrel and that of WTI crude on NYMEX was 2.2% lower at $58.19 per barrel.  End

 

US$1 = INR 88.80

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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