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Informist, Monday, Oct. 13, 2025

 

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--India Sept CPI inflation 1.54% vs 2.07% Aug
--Informist poll estimated India Sept CPI inflation at 1.5%
--India Sept CPI food inflation -2.28% vs -0.64% Aug
--India Sept CPI rural inflation 1.07% vs 1.69% Aug
--India Sept CPI urban inflation 2.04% vs 2.47% Aug
--India Sept CPI general index up 0.1% on month
--India Sept CPI food price index down 0.5% on month
--India Sept CPI cereals and products index up 0.1% on month
--India Sept CPI vegetable index down 3.2% on month
--India Sept CPI pulses and products index down 0.3% on month
--India Sept CPI oils and fats index up 0.5% on month
--India Sept CPI food, beverage index down 0.4% on month
--India Sept CPI housing index up 0.8% on month
--India Sept CPI clothing, footwear index up 0.2% on month
--India Sept CPI fuel and light index down 0.2% on month
--India Sept CPI miscellaneous index up 0.7% on month
--India Jul-Sept average CPI inflation 1.7% vs 1.8% RBI forecast 
--India Sept CPI inflation of 1.54% lowest since June 2017
--India Sept CPI core inflation 4.5% vs 4.1% Aug
--India Sept CPI core inflation of 4.5% highest since Sept 2023

 

NEW DELHI – India's headline CPI inflation fell to an over eight-year low of 1.54% in September because of the statistical effect of a high base and a fall in food prices, data released by the statistics ministry Monday showed. A rise in core inflation to a two-year-high, however, kept retail inflation from falling below the record low of 1.46% seen in June 2017.

 

At 1.54%, CPI inflation in September was in line with the consensus estimate. According to an Informist poll, headline inflation was seen at 1.5% in September. CPI inflation was 2.07% in August and 5.49% in September 2024.

 

September is the eighth consecutive month of CPI inflation staying below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4%. This is also the second time in three months when inflation has been below the lower end of the RBI's target range of 2-6%.

 

Food inflation fell to a near seven-year low of (-)2.28% in September. Food inflation was (-)0.64% in August. The last time food inflation was lower than the September print was in December 2018, when it was (-)2.65%.

 

Core inflation--or inflation excluding food and fuel items--rose to a two-year high of 4.5%. It was 4.1% in August and 4.5% in September 2023 as well. The last time core inflation was higher than 4.5% was in August 2023, when it was 4.8%.

 

The general index rose 0.1% on month in September, the lowest sequential rise in six months. The food index was down 0.5% from August.

 

"Record-high inflation in personal care and effects at 19.4% (driven by gold), alongside housing inflation reaching over a two-year high at 4.0% in September 2025, were major contributors to the spike in core inflation," Paras Jasrai, an economist at India Ratings and Research, said. "Favorably, the majority of the major groups within the core segment recorded lower inflation rates in September 2025 compared to August 2025."

 

With the latest print, CPI inflation averaged 1.7% in the September quarter, lower than the RBI's projection of 1.8% for the quarter. Rural inflation fell to 1.07% in September from 1.69% a month ago. Urban inflation moderated to 2.04% in September from 2.47% in August.

 

"The soft September CPI inflation continues to point towards the persistence of benign inflationary environment. While much of the moderation has been led by food prices, the core inflation has surged due to housing," Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist, Kotak Mahindra Bank. "We expect the pass through of GST (goods and services tax) cut to be more visible in the upcoming October reading likely pushing the print to sub-1%. 

 

Economists expect low inflation to allow space to the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee to lower the repo rate by 25 bps in December. The MPC reduced the key interest rate by 100 bps between February and June but has left it unchanged over the last two meetings.  

 

The following table details sequential and annual changes in the main components of the CPI (Combined):

 

	Weight	Index for September	Month-on-month change (in %)	Year-on-year change (in %)
				September	August
Cereals and products	9.67	197.8	0.1%	2.06%	2.70%
Meat and fish	3.61	228.2	0.7%	2.15%	1.52%
Egg	0.43	197.5	1.3%	2.76%	3.12%
Milk and products	6.61	191.7	0.2%	2.51%	2.63%
Oils and fats	3.56	196.8	0.5%	18.34%	21.24%
Vegetables	6.04	212.2	(-)3.2%	(-)21.38%	(-)15.92%
Pulses and products	2.38	182.9	(-)0.3%	(-)15.32%	(-)14.53%
Sugar and confectionery	1.36	136.8	0.4%	3.95%	3.73%
Spices	2.5	221.0	0.1%	(-)3.07%	(-)3.24%
Food and beverages	45.86	202.0	(-)0.4%	(-)1.37%	0.05%
Pan, tobacco and intoxicants	2.38	214.3	0.3%	2.73%	2.49%
Clothing and footwear	6.53	197.6	0.2%	2.28%	2.33%
Housing	10.07	188.2	0.8%	3.98%	3.09%
Fuel and light	6.84	180.4	(-)0.2%	1.98%	2.32%
Miscellaneous	28.32	194.9	0.7%	5.35%	5.05%
General Index	100	197.2	0.1%	1.54%	2.07%
Consumer Food Price Index	39.06	201.1	(-)0.5%	(-)2.28%	(-)0.64%

 

End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Vandana Hingorani 

 

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