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Informist, Monday, Oct. 13, 2025

 

By Rajesh Gajra

 

NEW DELHI - The bottom line of UltraTech Cement Ltd., the largest cement manufacturer in the country, is expected to jump up sharply on a year-on-year basis in the September quarter on the back of lower input costs and higher revenue. The company is expected to report moderate volume growth, driven by recent acquisitions and cement price increases, which will likely boost revenue for the quarter compared to the same period last year.

 

On the other hand, the quarter-on-quarter earnings performance of the cement major will likely have been hit by seasonality factors, heavy rains, and deferred consumption ahead of the cut in the goods and services tax on cement. The company's revenue is also likely to be lower sequentially, due to muted demand and largely unchanged cement prices compared to the June quarter. Input costs, particularly pet coke prices, did not continue to fall in the September quarter, and this is seen as bringing down the bottom line as compared to the June quarter.

 

The consolidated net profit of UltraTech Cement, which has an annual production capacity of about 187 million tonnes, is seen jumping up 79% on year but falling 34% on quarter to INR 14.7 billion in the September quarter, according to the average of estimates from eight brokerage firms. The net profit estimates range from a low of INR 12.8 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services to a high of INR 21.5 billion by YES Securities (India).

 

According to the estimates, the consolidated revenue of the company for the September quarter will likely rise 17% on year and fall 14% on quarter to INR 183.7 billion. The lowest estimate for revenue is INR 171.4 billion by the institutional equities division of Kotak Securities, whereas the highest estimate is INR 200.8 billion by YES Securities.

 

UltraTech Cement has cement factories in all key regions and its sales are also spread across the country. According to YES Securities, of the company's total installed capacity for manufacturing grey cement, around 27% is located in the south and 18%-19% is located in each of the other regions - north, east, west, and central.

 

On a year-on-year basis, UltraTech's consolidated volume in the September quarter is expected to have risen around 11% on year, significantly higher than overall "tepid" cement demand in the country, which likely increased 3%-4%, ICICI Securities said in its report. Brokerage Nuvama Wealth Management said UltraTech's recent acquisitions will help it report a 14% volume growth on a year-on-year basis, outperforming estimated cement industry volume growth of 4%-5% due to "sluggish" demand.

 

UltraTech Cement had in March 2024 acquired the cement subsidiary of Kesoram Industries Ltd. in an all-share deal through which it gained control over Kesoram's two cement factories in Telangana and Karnataka. These assets were fully consolidated with the company at the end of 2024-25 (Apr-Mar). In another significant acquisition, UltraTech Cement had taken a majority stake in The India Cements Ltd. and made it a subsidiary in December 2024.

 

ICICI Securities said average cement prices in the country during the September quarter were up around 5% on year and UltraTech's sales realisation will likely increase by more than 3% on year. Cement demand in the September quarter "remained patchy across regions, affected by weak infrastructure activity, GST cut anticipation" while the rural segment "offered partial support", Prabhudas Lilladher said in its report. The brokerage said this would have likely resulted in lower single-digit volume growth for the cement industry.

 

The expected moderate on-year volume and sales realisation will have a favourable impact on UltraTech Cement's bottom line. The company is also seen deriving benefit from the year-on-year decline in key input costs. UltraTech Cement's consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation is estimated to be INR 33.2 billion for the September quarter, up 48% on year and down 28% on quarter, according to the estimates.

 

Nuvama expects the company's overall blended EBITDA per tonne to jump to INR 999 in the September quarter from INR 725 in the year-ago quarter. ICICI Securities estimates UltraTech's blended EBITDA per tonne to rise 44% on year to INR 996. It said variable costs for the cement industry "remained benign on a YoY (year-on-year) basis... due to easing fuel rates."

 

Prices of imported pet coke and non-coking coal were lower in the September quarter on a year-on-year basis, "thereby providing some cushion on the cost front," according to Nuvama. YES Securities expects UltraTech's overall operating expenses per tonne in the September quarter to decline 6.6% on year, "led by lower RM (raw material) and energy costs."

 

UltraTech will detail its September quarter earnings Saturday. After the earnings announcement, investors will keenly watch the management commentary on cement demand trajectory, impact of the GST cut on cement, recent uptick in pet coke and coal prices, the likely margins for the remainder of the current financial year, and any likely acquisition targets the company has in sight.

 

Of the 22 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 18 have a ‘buy' call on the stock at an average target price of INR 13,817, two have a ‘hold' recommendation, and two have a 'sell' call at an average target price of INR 11,149. Monday, shares of UltraTech Cement ended at INR 12,172 on the National Stock Exchange, down 0.9% from the previous close.

 

The stock is down slightly over 3% from the June quarter earnings announcement on Jul. 21. In the June quarter, the company had reported a 49% on-year increase in consolidated net profit to INR 22.3 billion and a 13% on-year increase in revenue to INR 212.8 billion.

 

Following are the June quarter earnings estimates for UltraTech Cement from eight brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit:

 

Brokerage:	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
	(In INR million)
YES Securities (India) Ltd	200,789	21,497	42,232
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	185,527	14,638	33,247
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	180,147	14,234	33,223
ICICI Securities Ltd	187,264	14,031	32,402
Kotak Institutional Equities	171,382	13,835	30,353
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd	177,900	13,700	31,900
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	181,500	12,973	31,652
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	184,766	12,812	30,629
Average	183,659	14,715	33,205

 

End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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