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Informist, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025

MUMBAI – Stocks of fast-moving consumer goods companies are likely to trade lower next week, according to technical analysts. Market participants are keenly waiting for provisional updates by some companies and earnings announcements for the quarter ended September. Persistent selling pressure around exponential moving averages of FMCG stocks indicates a prevailing downtrend and bearish sentiment, analysts said.

"After a sharp decline, the (Nifty FMCG) index is currently consolidating around its support zone, showing a mild recovery in the previous session by forming a bullish candlestick near the support area," said Vatsal Bhuva, technical analyst at LKP Securities. "However, a mild positive divergence in the Relative Strength Index signals the possibility of a short-term pullback toward 55300 and 55500 levels," he said.

On Friday, the Nifty FMCG index closed 0.5% higher at 54966.45 points. After ending on a positive note the previous week, the index closed lower this week. It is expected to find support at 54540 points, while a sustained close above 56200 points would turn the bias positive, Bhuva said.

According to estimates of 12 brokerages, the bottom line of FMCG companies for the September quarter is likely to rise just a percentage on year but fall 4% on quarter. Their top line is seen rising 4% on year but fall 3% sequentially.

The business updates of FMCG companies suggest that the rationalisation of goods and services tax led to temporary trade disruptions, though the underlying consumption remained stable with gradual improvement in rural demand. The companies also highlighted that input costs largely remained benign, despite a modest growth in pricing due to GST-related interventions. On the margin front, most companies are likely to report broadly stable gross margins as benign input costs were offset by the passing of GST benefits to consumers, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities said in a report.

Nomura expects volume growth of consumer staples companies to moderate sequentially in the September quarter. The brokerage sees mid-to-high single digit on-year growth in sales volume of companies such as Marico, Asian Paints, and ITC. In terms of revenue, companies such as Marico, Tata Consumer Products, and Titan Co. are expected to post double-digit growth, Nomura said. Price hikes have largely paused, except in the case of Marico, as companies see the benefits of lower raw material prices, it said.

Marico said its consolidated revenue growth for the September quarter is likely to be more than 30% on year, driven by pricing interventions and improvement in product mix. Hindustan Unilever expects its consolidated business growth for the September quarter to be flat or in low-single digits, mainly due to the recent GST reforms. AWL Agri Business said its sales volume and revenue for the quarter under review will grow 5% and 24% on year, respectively, primarily driven by its industry essentials and edible oils segments.

Godrej Consumer Products expects its standalone business to deliver mid-single-digit value growth, led by low single-digit underlying volume growth. Dabur India, on the other hand, expects the metric to grow in mid-single digits. Nuvama Institutional Equities said business updates of Dabur India and Godrej Consumer for the September quarter were in line with estimates and the brokerage believes both companies are likely to report robust growth in their domestic and international businesses.

During September, the FMCG sector witnessed highest outflows by foreign institutional investors who offloaded $474 million, according to a strategy report by JM Financial Institutional Securities.

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Following are the resistance and support levels for the stocks for next week as per calculations by Informist based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:

End

US$1 = INR 88.68

Reported by Simran Rede

Edited by Nishant Maher

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