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Informist, Friday, Oct. 10, 2025

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

The spread and intensity of rainfall weakened across the country this week, with only a few spells of heavy to very heavy rainfall in some regions. This was because of the absence of a strong weather system, except one western disturbance northwest of India. The presence of this weather system revived rainfall over northwest India during the week, despite the withdrawal of monsoon from the region

The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, which began from Rajasthan on Sept. 15, stalled on Sept. 26 after retreating from most of northwest India. In its initial days of withdrawal, northwest India recorded dry weather. However, the formation of a western disturbance last week, followed by the formation of another such system early this week caused unusually high rainfall over most parts of the region. The weather system also caused hailstorms over parts of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan this week.

The monsoon's retreat stalled from Sept. 26 to Oct. 10 due to the presence of multiple weather systems, which kept up the spell of rainfall over most parts of India. The declaration of withdrawal depends on the fulfilment of certain criteria, which include the absence of rainfall over a region for at least a few consecutive days. It resumed its progression Friday, retreating from Gujarat entirely, most parts of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, and some parts of Maharashtra and Bihar.

Currently, the line of withdrawal of the southwest monsoon passes through Alibag, Ahilyanagar, and Akola in Maharashtra, Jabalpur in Madhya Pradesh, Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh, and Raxaul in Bihar. The normal date for complete withdrawal of monsoon is Oct. 15.

From Oct. 1–10, the country has received 50.8 millimetres of rainfall, 48% above normal for the period, data from the India Meteorological Department showed.

The presence of several cyclonic circulations and troughs over south peninsular India caused spells of heavy to very heavy rainfall over most of the region this week. Thunderstorms with gusty winds were also recorded over the region, prominently over the eastern parts.

Rainfall in east and central India remained light to moderate with the occasional spell of heavy showers. The heaviest bouts of showers were limited to sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Bihar at the beginning of the week due to the presence of several weather systems over the region. Northeast India and west India saw the driest weather this week.

The cyclonic storm "Shakhti" weakened into a depression in the first half of the week, before weakening further into a well-marked low pressure area later in the week. It stayed put over the Arabian Sea, changing its course slightly every 24–48 hours, though it remained a good distance away from India. As such, it did not cause major weather phenomena over the western parts of the country.

In the coming week, the intensity of rainfall over the country is expected to decline further. Conditions will become favourable for further withdrawal of the monsoon from the rest of the country in the first half of next week, the weather department said. Simultaneously, easterly and northeasterly winds are expected to set in over south India and the adjoining Bay of Bengal, commencing the northeast monsoon over the south-east peninsular region, the weather department said.

Following is the weekly all-India rainfall since the beginning of the southwest monsoon season (in millimetres):

The following table gives homogeneous region-wise rainfall during Jun. 1-Sept. 30 in the country (in millimetres): 

MONSOON PROGRESS

This year, the southwest monsoon hit the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal date of Jun. 1 and by May 29, the monsoon current covered southern and northeast India entirely, and parts of east and central India. However, after May 29, the monsoon was in a weak phase and resumed advancing only on Jun. 16. 

The monsoon covered entire India on Jun. 29, nine days before the normal date of Jul. 8. Normally, beginning Jun. 1, the southwest monsoon advances northwards and covers the entire country around Jul. 8. The withdrawal of the monsoon starts around Sept. 17 and it withdraws from the entire country around Oct. 15. 

ONSET CRITERIA

At present, the department uses criteria that was adopted in 2016 for declaring the onset of the monsoon over Kerala, which is based on the daily rainfall at 14 stations in Kerala and the neighbouring area, along with wind-field and outgoing long-wave radiation over the southeast Arabian Sea.

If, after May 10, 60% of the 14 designated stations--Minicoy and Amini in Lakshadweep, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, and Kannur in Kerala, and Kudulu and Mangalore in Karnataka--report rainfall of 2.5 millimetres or more for two consecutive days, the onset over Kerala will be declared on the second day, provided the wind-field and outgoing long-wave radiation conditions are met.

The outgoing long-wave radiation measures the amount of terrestrial radiation released into space and, by extension, the amount of cloud cover and water vapour that intercepts that radiation in the atmosphere.

The criteria emphasise the sharp increase in rainfall over Kerala along with the setting up of large-scale monsoon flow and extension of westerlies up to 600 hectopascal. 

However, the department declares the monsoon onset or progress dates for other regions operationally in a subjective manner, considering the sharp increase in rainfall and its characteristic sustenance for a few days and associated changes in the atmospheric circulation features.

LONG-RANGE FORECAST

For October, the weather department has forecast above-normal rainfall for the country at 115% of the long-period average. Most parts of India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during October. However, some areas in northwest India, the extreme south of peninsular India and isolated pockets in northeast India may experience below-normal rainfall, it said.

Normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most of India in October, except in the northeast and adjoining east India, the western Himalayan states, and Saurashtra and Kutch.

The weather agency said there is a 71% chance of the La Nia conditions forming during Oct-Dec. However, the current sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific are near average, indicating neutral El Nio-Southern Oscillation. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino, which means Little Boy in Spanish, is a climate pattern marked by an unusual warming of the surface waters in the Pacific, leading to drier and hotter weather in India. La Nina, which means Little Girl in Spanish, is the opposite of El Nino. It is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is associated with colder sea surface temperatures. La Nina is usually associated with good rains in India.

There are also weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevailing. The weather bureau said that negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are expected to continue beyond the southwest monsoon season. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole results in less rainfall in India, whereas a positive index leads to increased rainfall.

The department's long-range forecasts are as follows:

Private forecaster Skymet has predicted a "normal" southwest monsoon at 103% of the long-period average with an error margin of plus or minus 5%. The agency had predicted a weak start to the monsoon this year but expects the rainfall to increase from July. It does not see any chance of the occurrence of El Nino.

PRE-MONSOON RAINFALL

While the monsoon arrived on May 24, the weather department said rainfall during May would not be factored into the southwest monsoon. The country received above-normal rainfall during the pre-monsoon period in Mar-May. India received 185.8 millimetres of rainfall during Mar-May, 42% above the normal for the period. Last year, it received 108.7 millimetres of rainfall during Mar-May, 8.1% below the normal for the period.

RECAP 2024
The country received 934.8 millimetres of rainfall in Jun-Sept last year, which was 108% of the long-period average. The monsoon hit the Kerala coast on May 30, two days ahead of the scheduled date, and covered the entire country by Jul. 2, six days ahead of the normal date of Jul. 8. The weather bureau's forecast for the monsoon onset over Kerala last year was May 31 and predicted rainfall during Jun-Sept 920.7 millimetres, or 96% of the long-period average.     

Overall, monsoon rainfall was above normal for the season and the spatial distribution was uniform. The rainfall in June was below-normal at 89% of the long-period average. However, the country received above-normal showers during the rest of the southwest monsoon period. Rainfall was 109% of the long-period average in July, 115% in August, and 112% in September.

Rainfall during the season was 107% of the long-period average in northwest India, 119% in central India, 86% in east and northeast India, and 114% in the southern peninsula. Of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, two subdivisions received large excess, 10 received excess, and 21 recorded normal rainfall. Three subdivisions received deficient rainfall during Jun-Sept last year – Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh.

RESERVOIR LEVELS

The water level in 161 reservoirs across the country was 166.74 billion cubic metres as of Thursday, up over 1% from 164.99 billion cubic metres a week ago, according to data from the Central Water Commission. The current level is 91.4% of the total live storage capacity of 182.48 billion cubic metres, up 5.4% from a year ago. The water level in the reservoirs as of Thursday was nearly 19% higher than the 10-year average. 

The water level in key reservoirs in eastern India was 18.48 billion cubic metres as of Thursday, up nearly 8% from 17.12 billion cubic metres recorded on Oct. 2. The current water level is nearly 85% of the total live storage capacity, compared with over 83% a year ago.

In the southern region, the water level was 49.14 billion cubic metres as of Thursday, up over 1% from the previous week. The storage was over 89% of the total live storage capacity across the 45 reservoirs in the region, compared with nearly 86% a year ago.

In the western region, reservoirs held 36.57 billion cubic metres, slightly up from 36.35 billion cubic metres the previous week. The storage as of Thursday was nearly 98% of the total live storage capacity, higher than 97% a year ago. The water level in reservoirs in the central region was 45.24 billion cubic metres, up from 45.06 billion cubic metres a week earlier. The current storage accounts for over 93% of the total live storage capacity, surpassing 90% a year ago.

However, water levels in reservoirs of the northern region declined to 17.30 billion cubic metres as of Thursday from 17.89 billion cubic metres the previous week. The current level is over 87% of the total live storage capacity, higher than 64% a year ago. Out of the 161 reservoirs, 156 reservoirs reported more than 80% of normal storage, and five had 80% or less.

SOWING

Farmers across the country have sown kharif crops over 112.15 million hectares as of Oct. 3, largely steady from 112.07 million hectares sown during the previous week as the season has almost ended, according to the agriculture ministry. On a yearly basis, the area under kharif crops as of Oct. 3 was up 0.6% from 111.5 million hectares sown during the same period last year.

Paddy acreage has risen over 1% on year to 44.2 million hectares as of Oct. 3. The area under pulses was also up over 1% on year at 12 million hectares. The area under urad was up 6.6% on year at 2.4 million hectares, while that under moong was largely unchanged on year at 3.5 million hectares. The area under tur was 4.7 million hectares, slightly up from 4.6 million hectares during the corresponding period last year.

The area under coarse cereals, promoted as "Shri Anna" by the government, was up over 6% at 19.5 million hectares, mainly supported by a rise in the area under maize. Maize acreage has risen 12.6% to 9.5 million hectares. The area under jowar was down 1% at 1.4 million hectares. The area under bajra has fallen slightly to 6.8 million hectares.

The area under oilseeds has declined 5.3% on year to 19.0 million hectares. The area under soybean, the largest kharif oilseed, dipped to 12.0 million hectares from nearly 13.0 million hectares a year ago. Groundnut acreage has fallen to 4.8 million hectares from 5.0 million hectares a year ago.

Similarly, the area under cotton has fallen nearly 3% on year to around 11 million hectares. The area under sugarcane has risen over 3% on year to 5.9 million hectares.

TERMS

LARGE EXCESS: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is 60% or more 

EXCESS: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is 20-59% 

NORMAL: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is -19% to +19%

DEFICIENT: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is (-)59-20%

LARGE DEFICIENT: Percentage departure of actual rainfall from normal rainfall is (-)99-60%

NORMAL: Percentage departure of actual rainfall is within +/-10% of the long period average

BELOW NORMAL: Percentage departure of actual rainfall is <10% of the long period average

ABOVE NORMAL: Percentage departure of actual rainfall is within >10% of the long period average

EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL: Rainfall realised in a day is a value near about the highest recorded rainfall at or near the station for the month or season. However, this term will be used only when the actual rainfall amount exceeds 120 mm. 

EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN: Amount of rainfall realised in a day is >/= 244.5 mm

VERY HEAVY RAIN: Amount of rainfall realised in a day is 124.5-244.4 mm

HEAVY RAIN: Amount of rainfall realised in a day is 64.5-124.4 mm

MODERATE RAIN: Amount of rainfall realised in a day is 7.6-35.5 mm 

RED ALERT: Very heavy rainfall of over 204.4 mm in 24 hours

ORANGE ALERT: Heavy rainfall of 115.6-204.4 mm in 24 hours 

YELLOW ALERT: Warning to be aware of worsening weather conditions that could disrupt daily life

Internet links:
India Meteorological Department - www.imd.gov.in
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting - www.ncmrwf.gov.in
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology - www.tropmet.res.in. 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Ashish Shirke

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