Informist Poll
CPI inflation likely fell to 1.5% in Sept on base effect
This story was originally published at 13:22 IST on 10 October 2025
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI - CPI inflation in India likely fell to 1.5% in September, the lowest since June 2017, largely because of the statistical effect of a high base and lower food prices, according to an Informist poll of 15 economists. CPI inflation was 2.07% in August, 5.49% in September last year, and 1.46% in June 2017, the lowest on record.
Retail inflation has moderated over the last year because of lower food prices and favourable base effects. At 1.5%, September would be the eighth consecutive month when CPI inflation remains below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4%. It would also be the second time in three months when inflation would be below the lower end of the RBI's target range of 2-6%.
The estimates for September CPI inflation range from 1.2% to 1.9%. The statistics ministry will release CPI data for September at 1600 IST on Monday.
The base effect in September is such that if the overall index remains unchanged from August, retail inflation would fall to 1.4%. An inflation rate of 1.5% in September would translate to a 0.1% rise in the overall index from August, which would be the slowest sequential rise in six months.
Lower vegetable prices likely limited the sequential rise in the CPI in September. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, retail prices of tomato fell 20% on month in September. Onion and potato prices were down 3% and 2%, respectively, from August.
According to Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, food and beverage inflation is likely to fall to (-) 1.26% in September from 0.05% in August. "Pulses prices continue to see decline while prices of cereals are inching up. Oil and fats also continue to see modest increase on a MoM basis," economists at Nirmal Bang said in a report.
While food inflation is expected to be in the deflationary zone in September, core CPI inflation is likely to inch up to around 4.3% from 4.1% in August, economists said. Core inflation--which excludes volatile food and fuel items--is expected to rise largely due to higher gold prices, Nirmal Bang economists said.
If the headline print falls to 1.5% in September, as projected by economists, inflation will average 1.7% in the September quarter, 10 basis points lower than the RBI's forecast for the quarter. The RBI projects CPI inflation at 2.6% for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar).
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra earlier this month acknowledged that actual inflation prints have been turning out to be "significantly lower" than projections. "The recently implemented GST (goods and services tax) rate rationalisation would lead to a reduction in prices of several items in the CPI basket. Overall, the inflation outcome is likely to be softer than what was projected in August, primarily on account of the GST rate cuts and benign food prices," Malhotra said on Oct. 1 while announcing that the Monetary Policy Committee left interest rates unchanged.
Malhotra said that lower inflation has given "greater leeway" for monetary policy to support growth without compromising on price stability. Most economists polled by Informist after the MPC's decision on Oct. 1 expect the rate-setting panel to lower the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25% in December.
The following is a summary of the poll on CPI inflation in September:
| ORGANISATION | CPI INFLATION ESTIMATE |
| Bank of Baroda | 1.2% |
| Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities | 1.4% |
| ANZ Bank India | 1.4% |
| Societe Generale | 1.4% |
| ICICI Bank | 1.44% |
| HDFC Bank | 1.5% |
| IDFC FIRST Bank | 1.5% |
| YES Bank | 1.5% |
| State Bank of India | 1.54% |
| CareEdge Ratings | 1.6% |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 1.7% |
| India Ratings and Research | 1.7% |
| Sunidhi Securities | 1.79% |
| ICRA | 1.8% |
| QuantEco Research | 1.85% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Vandana Hingorani
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