More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Oct. 9, 2025

MUMBAI – The International Copper Study Group has cut its estimate of the global copper market surplus in 2025 to 178,000 tonnes from 289,000 tonnes earlier. For 2026, the study group now sees a deficit of 150,000 tonnes, compared with the earlier forecast of a surplus of 209,000 tonnes. The shift follows lower availability of copper concentrate, which has reduced the estimates for refined copper production, the group said.

The study group has lowered its forecast for global copper mine production to 1.4% in 2025 to 23.4 million tonnes. Earlier, the group had forecast a growth of 2.3% in 2025. The downward revision follows major disruptions at the world's leading copper mines, including Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. However, the production is still expected to rise due to additional output from the pre-incident ramp-up in the Kamoa mine, the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, and the expansion of the new Malmyzh mine in Russia.

The global copper mine output for 2026 is now expected to rise by 2.3%, slightly lower than the earlier estimate of 2.5%. This comes as several countries have done expansions and started a number of small and medium-sized copper mines. Furthermore, improvements are anticipated in Chilean and Zambian output, as well as a recovery in operational rates in Indonesia. 

The forecast for growth in global refined copper production has been revised upward to 3.4% in 2025 from the earlier projection of a 2.9% increase. This is primarily due to the continued expansion of Chinese capacity and the commencement of new capacity in several countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India, and Indonesia, with improved operating rates seen in Zambia. For 2026, a modest rise of 0.9% is expected in global refined copper production. 

The demand for global refined copper is expected to increase by 3% in 2025, higher than the group's earlier forecast of 2.4%. This is mainly due to a 3.3% rise in demand from China this year, while the output demand from the rest of the globe stands at 2.5%. China accounts for 58% of the world's refined copper demand. "Asia will continue to be the main driver of global growth, with demand in other key copper-using regions remaining subdued, notably in the EU (European Union) and Japan," the group said.

The global demand for copper is expected to continue growing due to improvements in manufacturing activity in copper-related sectors and sustained demand from the energy transition, urbanisation, and digitalisation.  End

Reported by Devanshi Verma

Edited by Saji George Titus

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.