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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025

MUMBAI – The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude oil prices to fall to an average of $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and around $52 per barrel in early 2026 due to a rise in global oil inventories. "We forecast that growing global oil supply and the transition away from peak summer seasonal demand will lead to significant growth in global oil inventories over the forecast, causing crude oil prices to fall in the coming months," the agency said in its short-term energy outlook for September.

The agency projects an increase in global liquid fuel production which is expected to drive inventory accumulation. The planned increases in production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies and strong supply growth outside the group continue to drive global liquid fuels production growth. EIA expects production in 2025 at 105.87 million barrels per day, higher than its previous projection of 105.54 million barrels per day. In 2026, it sees global liquid fuels production at 107.17 million barrels per day, also higher from its previous forecast of 106.64 million barrels per day.

The agency expects countries outside of OPEC and its allies to lead the production growth. Production from those countries is expected to rise by 2.0 million barrels per day in 2025, 300,000 barrels per day higher than in last month's forecast, and by 700,000 million barrels per day in 2026. "We expect the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana to drive production growth over the forecast period," the agency said. 

Production from the members of OPEC and its allies is likely to rise by 500,000 million barrels per day in 2025 and 600,000 million barrels per day in 2026. The forecast is based on the assumption that recent production increases due to higher targets set by the organisation will moderate as some members reach the practical limitations of their output and others aim to keep inventory builds from accelerating too quickly, limiting further decreases in oil prices, the agency said.    

Global oil inventories are likely to increase by an average of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2026, compared with an average annual increase of 1.9 million barrels per day this year, the agency said. "Inventory builds will be highest in 1Q26, averaging more than 2.7 million b/d," the agency said. It expects Brent crude oil prices to average $52 per barrel in 2026, compared with an average of $69 per barrel in 2025. 

As for West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the US energy agency now expects prices to average $65 per barrel this year, higher than its previous forecast of $64.16 per barrel. In 2026, the agency expects WTI prices to average $48.5 per barrel, higher than $47.77 seen in its previous estimate.

Global consumption of liquid fuels is seen at 103.99 million barrels per day in 2025, higher than the agency's earlier forecast of 103.81 million barrels per day. In 2026, it sees consumption of liquid fuels at 105.11 million barrels per day, slightly higher than its previous forecast of 105.09 million barrels per day.

At 1051 IST, the price of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was $65.92 per barrel and the price of WTI crude on NYMEX was $62.23 per barrel.  End

US$1 = INR 88.79

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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