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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025

 

By Anshul Choudhary

 

MUMBAI - The continuing bullish sentiment in the stock market masks an underlying weakness in the Indian economy. While the Nifty 50 index remains above its long-term average, the companies in this index are likely to report single-digit growth for the September quarter, the 10th straight quarter of such low growth.

 

Weak sales growth and limited scope for improvement in margins are also likely to hit net profit growth. The 47 index constituents for which earnings estimates are available are likely to report a cumulative net profit growth of 4.6% on year for the September quarter, according to an Informist poll of 13 brokerages. This near-5% growth will be slower than the 8% growth in net profit during the June quarter and also in the September quarter last year. 

 

There is a caveat, though. This expected 5% on-year net profit growth in the September quarter is driven by just four companies – Ultratech Cement, Bharti Airtel, and the two steel companies JSW Steel and Tata Steel. The net profit of these four companies is expected to grow 80-260% on year. Excluding these four, the net profit growth of the remaining 43 companies is seen slowing to just over 1%.

 

Out of the 47 index companies, 11 are expected to report a decline in their profit and 36 are expected to grow their profit. This is slightly worse than the June quarter, when only 9 companies from the same set of 47 had reported a decline in profit. In the June quarter, 37 of these 47 companies had reported a rise in their net profit and one company had reported a flat profit growth.

 

A decline in banks' earnings in the September quarter is the major reason for the slower cumulative earnings growth of companies constituting the benchmark Nifty 50 index. Banks, which earn nearly one-third of the index's earnings and make up 36% of the index along with other financial services firms, are facing a double whammy as credit growth is still slow while their margins are expected to decline further due to cuts in the benchmark repo rate by the Reserve Bank of India. Excluding the six banks in the Nifty 50 index, the net profit of the remaining 41 companies is expected to rise nearly 9% which includes the likely sharp rise in profit of the four outperformers.

 

There were no estimates available for three of the Nifty 50 constituents – Adani Enterprises, Bajaj Finserv, and Jio Financial Services. In this analysis, brokerages' earnings estimates for the September quarter have been compared with companies' net profit excluding exceptional items for the previous quarters, to enable a like-to-like comparison.

 

The latest quarter will turn out to be 10th straight quarter of these index companies reporting a single-digit growth in revenue. The Nifty 50 companies have not reported a double-digit growth in quarterly sales since the end of 2022-23 (Apr-Mar).

 

Weak sales growth over the past several quarters has caught up with companies leading to a slowdown in their net profit growth, Nuvama Institutional Equities said in its quarterly preview report Monday. These 47 index companies are expected to report a sales growth of 6% during the September quarter--similar to the growth reported in the June quarter.

 

The performance of Indian companies remains poor on a sequential basis as well. The Nifty 50 companies' cumulative net profit during the September quarter is expected to decline 5.5% as compared with the June quarter. This will be the second straight quarter of sequential decline in the index companies' net profit. The top 50 companies' revenue is expected to rise a mere 1% on quarter, which is better than the 5?ll seen in the June quarter.

 

CREDIT GROWTH SLOWDOWN

A sharp slowdown in credit growth has affected banks' earnings this financial year. Scheduled banks' year-on-year credit growth was 10% for the fortnight ended Sept. 19, according to the latest data from the Reserve Bank of India. This was a tad lower than the 11% growth in FY25, but sharply down from the 19% rise in FY24.

 

Weak demand for credit has hit banks' interest income. The six banks in the Nifty 50 index are expected to report only a 1% year-on-year rise in net interest income during the September quarter.

 

Banks' net interest margin is expected to decline in the September quarter as the effects of the Reserve Bank of India's 100 basis points cut in its benchmark repo rate earlier this year play out. "Even so core NIM will decline by 5-6 bps only but total NIM will decline by 11-13 bps...," Nuvama said.

 

Lower NIMs are expected to hit the profits of most banks with four out of six banks in the Nifty 50 index likely to report a fall in net profit, estimates showed. The cumulative net profit of the six index banks is expected to fall 4% on year during the September quarter.

 

SECTORAL LAGGARDS

Fast-moving consumer goods companies' sales in September were affected as distributors deferred their purchases after the cut in goods and service tax on several daily-use products, as companies have acknowledged in their quarterly updates ahead of Jul-Sept earnings. This likely hit earnings of FMCG companies, which are already struggling due to poor volume growth.

 

Further, unseasonal rains also impacted the sales of juices and cold drinks as the summer season was truncated. The sales growth of four FMCG companies during the quarter is likely to rise only 3% on year. Poor sales growth, along with a rise in raw material costs, likely hit margins of consumer staple companies. Owing to lower margins, the four FMCG companies in the Nifty 50 index may report a mere 1% rise in cumulative net profit.

 

Among other sectors, brokerages don't expect any improvement in demand for information technology services. "As clients reel under macro and tariff uncertainty, we believe there is hesitation to commit additional dollars to any large initiatives," brokerage Motilal Oswal said.

 

A weak demand for IT services means sales growth may also continue to remain in low single digit. The five IT companies in the Nifty 50 index may report a quarter-on-quarter rise of 3% in cumulative sales and a 2% rise in net profit during the September quarter. Compared to the previous year, the five companies' sales may rise 5% and net profit may rise 6%.

 

SOME POSITIVES

Automobile companies are likely to report a higher growth in profits on better realisations and volumes, especially in the tractor and two-wheeler segments. Better demand from rural areas and early festive season aided growth in the sector, brokerages said.

 

During the September quarter, the cumulative net profit of six automobile companies in the index is likely to rise 9% on year. While most companies reported growth in profits, Tata Motors' net profit may decline 24% due to lower volumes from its UK subsidiary, Jaguar Land Rover.

 

The subsidiary had to halt manufacturing in September after a cyber-attack. Owing to the production halt, car registrations for JLR in the UK were down 41% on year to 6,419 units in September. Excluding Tata Motors, the net profit growth of the remaining five automobile companies is expected to jump to 19% on year.

 

Steel makers are expected to see a sharp rise in profits on higher volumes and lower price of coking coal, a key raw material for the steel industry. Prices of coking coal were down 12-20% on year, brokerage Motilal Oswal said. Owing to this, JSW Steel's net profit may rise nearly 80% on year and Tata Steel is likely to quadruple its profit. JSW Steel and Tata Steel may report a rise of 8-18% on year in sales volume during the quarter, the brokerage said.

 

Despite the rise in sales, both companies revenues are likely to rise only 2-6% due to a drop in realisations. Among others, Bharti Airtel, Titan Co., and Ultratech Cement are likely to see a surge in profits. These companies' net profit may rise 50-90% on year during the September quarter.

 

Telecommunication companies benefited from higher average revenue per user in the September quarter compared to the previous year, driven by tariffs hikes. However, a marginal rise in the ARPU compared to the June quarter is likely to limit the sequential rise in profits. Bharti Airtel is expected to report a 11% quarter-on-quarter rise in net profit and a 3% growth in sales during the September quarter.

 

Following are the Jul-Sept consensus earnings estimates of companies that constitute the National Stock Exchange's Nifty 50 index. These estimates are based on reports compiled by Informist from 13 brokerage houses.

 

Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
AUTO
Bajaj Auto	147,812	24,792	12.60	23.65	17.46	18.29	29,962	--	3
Eicher Motors +	61,287	14,385	43.76	30.73	21.56	19.35	15,188	--	3
Hero MotoCorp	119,215	15,254	13.94	26.74	24.46	35.51	16,557	--	3
M&M	337,282	43,452	16.63	13.13	(1.21)	25.95	44,672	Nov. 4	3
Maruti Suzuki	391,262	36,032	5.17	17.40	1.86	(2.92)	41,531	--	3
Tata Motors +	958,508	25,398	(5.52)	(24.03)	(8.20)	(35.28)	82,071	--	2
Total	2,015,366	159,313	3.13	9.40	(1.29)	2.70
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
BANK
AXIS Bank *	133,422	56,694	(1.05)	(18.04)	(1.60)	(2.36)	N.A.	Oct. 15	5
HDFC Bank *	313,063	172,280	3.96	2.42	(0.42)	(5.11)	N.A.	Oct. 18	5
ICICI Bank *	215,131	120,030	7.31	2.19	(0.56)	(5.99)	N.A.	Oct. 18	4
IndusInd Bank*	45,534	6,171	(14.85)	(53.45)	(1.86)	(9.82)	N.A.	Oct. 18	5
Kotak Mahindra *	73,625	32,704	4.88	(2.19)	1.42	(0.34)	N.A.	Oct. 25	4
SBI *	408,516	172,242	(1.85)	(6.04)	(0.54)	(10.11)	N.A.	--	5
Total	1,189,291	560,120	1.10	(4.23)	(0.56)	(6.42)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
CAPITAL GOODS
Bharat Electronics	52,614	11,308	14.79	3.63	19.12	16.69	14,504	--	3
L&T +	700,633	38,538	13.82	13.50	10.03	6.54	69,163	--	2
Total	753,247	49,846	13.89	11.10	10.62	8.68
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
CEMENT
UltraTech Cement +	188,580	15,328	20.62	86.92	(11.36)	(31.14)	34,229	Oct. 18	4
Total	188,580	15,328	20.62	86.92	(11.36)	(31.14)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
CHEMICAL
Asian Paints +	80,258	8,851	(0.02)	1.18	(10.21)	(19.52)	13,298	Nov. 12	3
Grasim Industries	94,313	7,806	23.72	8.29	2.26	N.A.	3,467	--	3
Total	174,571	16,657	11.54	4.39	(3.88)	69.70
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
FINANCE
Bajaj Finance +*	114,867	48,357	29.97	20.90	12.32	2.90	N.A.	--	6
Bajaj Finserv +	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	--	--
HDFC Life Insurance Co#	191,452	4,751	15.54	9.73	32.35	(13.06)	N.A.	Oct. 15	1
Jio Financial Services *+	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	--	--
SBI Life Insurance Co#	235,058	5,439	15.99	2.74	36.83	(8.49)	N.A.	--	1
Shriram Finance*	61,593	22,056	12.72	6.48	6.70	2.31	N.A.	--	7
Total	602,971	80,603	17.91	14.60	26.56	0.80
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
FMCG
Hindustan Unilever	158,607	24,941	2.27	(4.51)	(0.44)	(8.71)	35,327	Oct. 23	6
ITC	200,899	51,743	1.16	3.99	(4.60)	5.33	65,035	--	6
Nestle India	53,302	7,353	4.43	5.72	4.59	11.54	11,815	Oct. 16	6
Tata Consumer Product +	48,068	3,519	14.05	(3.42)	0.58	5.32	6,309	--	5
Total	460,876	87,557	3.14	1.25	(1.66)	1.37
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
IT
HCL Tech +	315,737	42,681	9.40	0.78	4.04	11.06	64,402	Oct. 13	11
Infosys +	441,202	71,921	7.65	10.54	4.35	3.92	106,392	Oct. 16	11
TCS +	651,153	125,615	1.33	5.48	2.65	(1.56)	173,797	Oct. 9	11
Tech Mahindra +	138,018	13,048	3.67	4.37	3.38	14.39	21,103	Oct. 14	12
Wipro +	227,574	33,184	2.04	3.42	2.81	(0.36)	45,434	Oct. 16	11
Total	1,773,683	286,448	4.51	5.67	3.39	2.32
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
JEWELLERY
Titan Co	152,571	10,498	15.45	48.91	4.76	1.92	16,890	--	5
Total	152,571	10,498	15.45	48.91	4.76	1.92
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
METAL & MINING
Hindalco Industries +	646,711	41,011	11.11	4.91	0.68	2.42	81,379	Nov. 7	2
JSW Steel +	419,772	13,831	5.78	77.09	(2.71)	(36.67)	63,731	Oct. 17	2
Tata Steel +	550,100	29,425	2.05	260.88	3.44	41.62	85,257	--	2
Total	1,616,582	84,266	6.50	53.06	0.69	1.95
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
OIL & GAS
ONGC	319,998	96,231	(5.55)	(19.70)	(0.01)	19.93	180,916	--	4
Reliance Ind +	2,385,223	187,868	3.02	13.43	(2.10)	(30.40)	447,462	--	4
Total	2,705,221	284,098	1.92	(0.48)	(1.85)	(18.87)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
PHARMA, HEALTHCARE
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise +	61,989	4,558	10.91	20.31	6.11	5.30	9,067	--	2
Cipla +	74,277	13,364	5.34	2.60	6.76	2.99	18,825	Oct. 30	2
Dr. Reddy's Lab +	86,800	14,008	7.98	11.56	1.26	(1.22)	21,277	Oct. 24	2
Sun Pharma +	141,181	30,662	6.22	0.86	1.93	34.56	41,423	--	2
Total	364,246	62,592	7.23	4.72	3.41	15.33
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
POWER
Adani Enterprises +	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	--	--
Coal India +	296,350	48,493	(3.38)	(22.89)	(17.32)	(44.54)	71,380	--	2
NTPC	427,672	43,956	6.05	(5.45)	0.46	(7.94)	107,282	--	2
Power Grid	106,425	37,561	3.73	1.21	7.19	2.81	90,999	--	2
Total	830,447	130,010	2.20	(11.25)	(6.00)	(24.29)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
PORTS
Adani Ports and SEZ +	88,492	32,332	25.22	32.24	(3.03)	(2.46)	53,271	--	2
Total	88,492	32,332	25.22	32.24	(3.03)	(2.46)
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
RETAIL
Trent	47,438	4,416	17.55	4.28	(0.78)	4.49	7,725	--	2
Total	47,438	4,416	17.55	4.28	(0.78)	4.49
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
SERVICES
Eternal +	84,677	1,558	76.45	(11.50)	18.15	523.07	2,485	--	3
Total	84,677	1,558	76.45	(11.50)	18.15	523.07
Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
TELECOM
Bharti Airtel +	508,629	66,190	22.64	84.21	2.83	11.28	286,757	--	4
Total	508,629	66,190	22.64	84.21	2.83	11.28
Nifty Total	13,556,885	1,931,829	5.99	4.56	1.00	(5.49)

 

Notes:

+ Consolidated Figure

* Net interest Income

Y-o-Y: Year-on-Year

# Net premium income

Q-o-Q: Quarter-on-Quarter

N.A.: Not Available

 

Estimates from:

Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, HDFC Securities Ltd, HSBC Global Research, ICICI Securities Ltd, JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd, Kotak Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd, Nomura Equity Research, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd and YES Securities (India) Ltd.

End

 

Data compiled by Shivaji Jagatap

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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