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Informist, Monday, Oct. 6, 2025

 

By Gopika Balasubramanium

MUMBAI – Most analysts expect the positive sentiment in the Indian stock market to persist, with benchmark indices likely to maintain their recent gains. Although some analysts remain cautious about the current rally, they said the trend has turned bullish, especially after the Reserve Bank of India's policy measures and the dovish stance.

 

Analysts said the majority of the negative factors on the global front have already been discounted by the investors. They expect the equity investors to take a buy-on-dip strategy in the coming sessions. Persistent domestic inflows have been cushioning the market from a major fall despite recurring selling pressure from foreign investors, analysts said.

"Market view is constructive," a head of research at a small brokerage firm said, adding that, once the September quarter results start coming out, then "we will see some progress there". He also expects the Nifty 50 to touch an all-time high soon, if the results and management commentary, or either, turn out well. "... we are going to see it very quickly," the research head said.

 

Monday, the Nifty 50 closed at 25077.65 points, up 183.40 points or 0.7%. The 50-stock index ended higher for the third straight session and has gained 2% during this period. The recovery comes after the index fell for eight consecutive sessions until September 30. Notably, the index is 4.5% down from its historic high of 26277.35 points, which it reached in September last year, and 15% up from the low it hit in April 2025. Technical analysts expect the Nifty 50 to find immediate support at 25000-24950 points and face resistance at 25150-25200 points. 

 

However, some analysts are cautious about the market's recovery. "I do not expect the Nifty 50 to sustain these gains effortlessly," Bhavya Shah, technical analyst at StoxBox, said. "The rally is facing its most significant test right now and the gains to be sustained we need to see a decisive breakout and a daily close above 25120 with a noticeable increase in trading volume," he added.

 

Banking and financial services stocks have also come to focus after the RBI Wednesday proposed the review of capital market exposure guidelines, which will provide an enabling framework for banks to finance acquisitions by Indian corporations. Such measures will enhance their lending scope, thereby improving their credit flows, analysts said. The Nifty Bank has gained for the fifth session running on Monday. The banking index closed at 56104.85 points, up 515.60 points or 0.9%. The Nifty Bank is seen finding support at 55800-55600 points and resistance at 56500-56700 points.
 

Some focus will also be on the provisional numbers for the September quarter released by banks, financial services companies, real estate companies, and fast-moving consumer goods companies. Analysts said the provisional numbers from these companies have been largely positive so far. The latest was by Metropolis Health, which expects a 23% on-year growth in its consolidated revenue in the September quarter.

Having said that, from this week, the primary focus of investors will be on the September quarter results and management's comments, especially on the impact of the goods and services tax cut on the ground and earnings expectations. 

 

"The earnings cycle is bottoming out, with growth likely to pick up into double digits...," Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in an India Strategy report Monday. The broking firm expects the net profit of the Nifty 50 companies to grow 6% year-on-year in the September quarter. Excluding financial companies, the net profit of the Nifty 50 companies is expected to grow 10% on year. Excluding companies involved in global commodities such as metals and oil and gas, the metric is seen growing 4% on year for the quarter.

 

Motilal Oswal also commented on the current market trend and its expectations for the near-term in the report. "Valuations are reasonable, with Nifty (50) trading at 20.6x (times) in line..., and any evidence of earnings growth pickup should help valuations expand," the broking firm said. "We see potential for further market upside, especially in an environment characterised by improving corporate earnings growth, low interest rates, ample liquidity, and macroeconomic recovery," it added.  End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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