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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

 

By Ashutosh Pati

 

MUMBAI – Another month of range-bound movement is expected for crude oil in October, though some market participants remain concerned about prices falling below $60 per barrel if members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies implement an aggressive production hike on Sunday.

 

As per the median of estimates from nine broking firms polled by Informist, the October crude oil contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India is seen at INR 5,250-INR 6,000 per barrel this month. The November contract of West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange is expected to trade between $58.0 and $67.0 per barrel this month.

 

"Not much upside is possible in crude oil prices. They are likely to remain steady in a range," Manoj Kumar Jain, director of Prithvi Finmart, said. "We have seen prices in a tight range and that is going to continue until there are any new developments in the Russia-Ukraine war," Jain said.

 

OPEC and allies may agree to raise production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November, almost three times the increase made for October, as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim market share, Reuters reported. Eight members of the group are considering a production increase of 274,000–411,000 barrels per day, two to three times higher than the October hike, the report said. However, OPEC has denied these claims, stating in a post on the social media platform X that the media reports are misleading.

 

The eight members of the group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — had paused their earlier aggressive production hikes and raised output by 137,000 barrels in October. The hike marked the beginning of the unwinding of 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cut, which were set to remain in place till the end of 2026. Before that, these nations had aggressively increased production, fully unwinding the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut the group had announced in late 2023.

 

Crude oil prices are expected to remain under significant pressure due to concerns about demand and a much-expected oversupply in the global oil market in the fourth quarter of the year. Moreover, Iraq resumed crude oil supplies to Turkey for the first time in two and a half years, following which oil prices slumped around 3%. An agreement between Iraq's federal government, the Kurdistan regional government, and foreign oil producers operating in the region will allow 180,000 to 190,000 barrels per day of crude to flow to Turkey's Ceyhan port, Iraq's oil minister had told Kurdish broadcaster Rudaw Media Network on Friday.

 

Shweta Shah, energy analyst at Motilal Oswal Wealth Management, said oil prices are in a negative trend and if the $60 per barrel level breaks, prices could fall further to $55 per barrel. At 1802 IST, the most active November crude oil contract on the NYMEX was 0.5% lower at $62.03 per barrel and the most active October contract on the MCX was at INR 5,505 per barrel, down 1.1% from the previous close.

 

Shah also added that China's purchase of oil to add to its strategic petroleum reserves has already been discounted by the market and is unlikely to provide any support to prices. She expects a surplus of 900,000 barrels to 1 million barrels by the end of this year. "... surplus will be a major overhang over the market," Shah said. Analysts at ING expect "the market to move into a large surplus in the fourth quarter (of 2025) and remain in surplus through 2026".

 

Despite the US Energy Information Administration's assessment of a higher global oil production than demand this summer, a significant increase in observable oil inventories was yet to be seen. "This disconnect is likely the result of some of the excess production ending up in observable strategic reserves, particularly China, or other stockpiles used by countries for domestic consumption," the agency had said in its short-term energy outlook for September.

 

Rising tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war and persistent risks to Russian barrels could provide some support to prices. Last week, Russia announced a partial ban on diesel exports until the end of the year, as well as the extension of an existing ban on gasoline exports. These export restrictions follow attacks by Ukraine on Russia's energy infrastructure. The decline in refining capacity has prompted Moscow to reduce its crude oil output, according to media reports. "... Russian oil disruptions due to the war (are) providing support (to prices) at lower zones, while demand concerns may cap sharp upside," Jateen Trivedi, vice president, research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said.

 

Following are the details of the estimates of brokerages on crude oil prices for October:

 

Brokerage	MCX support (in INR)	MCX resistance (in INR)	NYMEX WTI support ($)	NYMEX WTI resistance ($)
Axis Securities	5,000	6,200	57.0	70.0
Kedia Advisory	5,380	5,940	59.8	66.7
Kotak Securities	5,400	6,000	61.0	67.0
LKP Securities	5,350	5,925	59.5	65.5
Motilal Oswal Wealth Management	4,800	5,650	55.0	69.0
Nirmal Bang	5,250	6,000	55.0	70.0
Prithvi Finmart	5,350	6,350	58.0	68.0
Reliance Securities	4,800	6,500	56.0	65.0
Ventura Securities	5,095	5,900	57.9	67.0
Median	5,250	6,000	58.0	67.0

End

 

US$1 = INR 88.69

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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