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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025

 

MUMBAI - Naval Kagalwala, chief operating officer and product head at Shriram Wealth Ltd., said the following on the Reserve Bank of India's fourth bi-monthly monetary policy for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) detailed on Wednesday:

 

The RBI-led MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) unanimously maintained the policy rates, while also continuing with a neutral policy stance (though two external members voted to change the stance to accommodative). 

 

The inflation outlook was classified as more benign, given a sharper-than-expected fall in food prices, improved supply conditions, GST rationalisation, with core inflation also expected to remain contained. The FY26 headline inflation was revised to 2.6% (from 3.1% as per August MPC meeting), helped by satisfactory southwest monsoon, comfortable buffer stocks, good progress of kharif sowing and adequate water reservoir levels. The real GDP growth for the ongoing financial year was revised to 6.8% from 6.5?rlier - aided by brightened prospects of agriculture, rising capacity utilisation, conducive financial conditions, with recent GST announcements said to enhance consumption.  

 

The governor acknowledged deterioration in external environment given the ongoing tariffs and trade policy uncertainties but reiterated confidence around meeting external obligations. Concern around recent depreciation of the rupee was also noted, with governor assuring of taking appropriate steps as warranted. The statement noted policy transmission across sectors, with further support likely from improvement in liquidity conditions from drawdown in GOI (Government of India) cash balances and durable liquidity injection from CRR cuts.  

 

While there was no clear guidance on roadmap for policy easing, the committee emphasised to wait for the impact of policy actions along with greater clarity around trade related uncertainties before charting the next course of action.  However, the statement also noted that the current macroeconomic conditions had opened up policy space for further supporting growth - hinting at policy easing in any of the forthcoming meetings.  End

 

Compiled by Adhithya Aji 
Filed by Vandana Hingorani

 

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