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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025

 

By Anjana Therese Antony

 

MUMBAI – Traders refrained from making aggressive bets in the derivatives chain of the benchmark Nifty 50 index Tuesday amid some caution ahead of the policy announcement by the Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday. Premiums across call and put options of the Nifty 50 expiring next week almost halved ahead of the policy outcome. 

 

While some expect the apex bank to keep the benchmark rate unchanged for the second consecutive time at 5.50%, a section of market participants expects a cut of 25 basis points to 5.25%. Market watchers will look for the RBI's comments about inflation, economic growth, and the risks associated with US tariffs. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee started the rate cut cycle in February and has reduced interest rates by 100 bps so far in 2025.

 

The weakness in the market also comes amid expectations that the government's goods and services tax boost will not be enough to push consumption and corporate earnings growth in the current financial year. Persistent selling pressure from foreign investors and muted returns from the equity market has been weighing on sentiment for almost a year now. However, experts say it will be difficult for investors to make a good entry point until the market goes through a correction, which is currently unlikely due to the significant inflow from mutual funds. 

 

On Tuesday, the Nifty 50 closed 0.1% lower at 24611.10 points, extending its losing streak for the eighth consecutive session. Immediate support for the index is seen at 24500-24450 points and resistance at 24700-25000 points in the near term, according to technical and derivatives analysts at two domestic broking firms. 

 

In the options chain of the Nifty 50, premiums on call options of 24700-25500 strikes expiring next week declined 24-64% and open interest in these contracts rose by 2.0-3.5 million. Premiums on put contracts of 24600-24000 strikes fell 7-43% and open interest addition was around 2 million in each of these strikes. The highest concentration of open interest was at the 24700-point call and 24600-point put contracts. 

 

The futures contracts of the Nifty 50, too, showed caution, with traders adding short positions to the October and November series. Open interest in the October futures contract rose 23% and that in the November series increased over 1%. These contracts closed 0.1% lower each, mirroring the movement in the spot index. 

 

Foreign investors' short positions in index futures remain at a significantly higher level of 84% compared to 72% in early July. On Monday, FIIs added more than 6,000 long positions and 9,000 long positions in index futures.  

 

--Nifty 50 September closed at 24609.60, down 75.40 points; 1.50-point discount to the spot index

--Nifty 50 October closed at 24787.00, down 22.20 points; 175.90-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 November closed at 24925.70, down 19.10 points; 314.60-point premium to the spot index

 

Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki India, Tata Consultancy Services, State Bank of India, ITC, Axis Bank, Dixon Technologies (India), Vodafone Idea, Punjab National Bank, BSE, Hindustan Aeronautics, and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the most active underlying stocks Tuesday.  End 

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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