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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025

 

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--Kpler: India's crude oil imports rise on month to 4.8 mln bpd in Sept 
--Kpler: India's crude oil imports from Russia in September at 1.6 mln bpd 
--Kpler: India Sept crude oil imports from Russia dn 6% on month, 17% on yr
--Kpler: Iraq 2nd largest crude oil supplier to India in Sept at 904,000 bpd 
--Kpler:Saudi Arabia 3rd largest oil supplier to India in Sept at 606,000 bpd 
--Kpler: India's crude oil imports from US at 212,000 bpd in September 
--Kpler: India could lower Russian oil imports but tough, risky in near term

 

By Ashutosh Pati and Pallavi Singhal

 

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – India's crude oil imports from Russia fell on year and on month in September with refiners looking to gradually diversify supply and expand the import basket, according to Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modelling, at global trade data and analytics firm Kpler. India's crude oil imports from Russia fell over 6% on month and 17% on year to 1.6 million barrels per day in September, Kpler's data showed.

 

Despite the decline, Russian barrels accounted for over 33% of India's crude oil import basket in September. Russian crude oil had accounted for nearly 37% of India's oil import basket in August, 34% in July, and 45% in June.

 

"Russian barrels are likely to remain the core of the import mix, but refiners are clearly placing more emphasis on diversification across the Middle East (West Asia), Americas, and Africa," Ritolia said. With freight rates elevated, India-bound Russian spot loadings are likely to remain flat into October versus September, he said. However, disruptions in Russia's downstream system suggest crude oil exports will stay healthy and discounts could rise again to sustain flows, Ritolia added.

 

In September, India imported 4.8 million barrels per day of crude oil, up around 6% from the previous month and 1% from the corresponding period last year. West Asia continued to play a significant role in India's crude oil imports during the month. Iraq was India's second-largest supplier, supplying 904,000 barrels per day of crude oil, followed by Saudi Arabia at 606,000 barrels per day. Inbound shipments from the US slipped to 212,000 barrels per day in September from 230,000 barrels per day in August, the data showed.

 

Ritolia said India and Russia's relationship around crude oil is now "more about balance than barrels". "Honestly, I don't see India stepping away from Russian supplies anytime soon in the near to mid-term," he said. "Russian barrels still price cheaper than most other grades India imports. True, the discounts are narrower than the $10–$20 per barrel spreads we saw earlier, but even a small price edge matters."

 

Refiners will not leave a single dollar on the table unless there is a clear directive from the government banning Russian imports, similar to how India treated Iranian oil imports, he said. Though there has been a stronger push for diversification of supply, Russian oil remains central to India's needs and continues to hold the largest share. "What we are seeing, however, is that Indian refiners are gradually looking to expand their basket--not necessarily to replace Russia in the short term, but to enhance energy security, continuity of flows, and economic flexibility," he said.

 

In terms of replacing Russian barrels, Ritolia said it can be done but only if New Delhi is willing to make the shift. India could reduce Russian imports over time, but it would be difficult, costly, and risky, especially in the near to medium term, he said. Replacing Russian oil would need fast sourcing from multiple producers. If refinery margins shrink or retail fuel prices climb, that could feed into inflation, which would create a political backlash and also result in weaker profitability. Moreover, budget pressures, foreign exchange risks, and balance-of-payments strains could intensify with pricier crude oil.

 

Alternatives such as Iran or Venezuela carry their own sanction risks, complicating substitution unless the US explicitly allows it, Ritolia said. "So whether India actually takes that step will depend heavily on the strength of US pressure (trade, tariffs, sanctions) and how much cost and volatility India is prepared to absorb. All in all, the situation is fluid, and the Russia–India oil partnership remains intact for now."  End

 

US$1 = INR 88.78

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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