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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025

 

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--IMD: India Sept rainfall 15.3?ove normal at 193.6 mm 
--CONTEXT: India Sept rainfall was seen at 109% of long period average 
--IMD: Rainfall in central India 43.7?ove normal at 255.3 mm in Sept 
--IMD: Rainfall in south India 11.8?ove normal at 179 mm in Sept 
--IMD: Sept rainfall in east, northeast India 30.7?low normal at 195.9 mm 
--IMD: Rainfall in northwest India 30.7?ove normal at 134.2 mm in Sept 
--IMD: India Jun-Sept rainfall 5th highest since 2001 
--IMD: Jun-Sept rainfall over northwest India highest since 2001 
--IMD: Negative Indian Ocean Dipole seen continuing after monsoon 
--IMD: 71% chances of La Nina climate pattern forming in Oct-Dec 
--IMD: South India Oct-Dec rainfall seen 112% of long period average 
--CONTEXT: IMD details outlook for rainfall, temperature in Oct, Oct-Dec 
--IMD: India Oct rainfall seen 115% of long period average 
--IMD: Oct maximum temperature over most of India seen normal, below normal 
--IMD: Overall southwest monsoon withdrawal from India may go beyond Oct 12 

 

MUMBAI – The India Meteorological Department has forecast above-normal rainfall over southern India at 112% of the long-period average during Oct-Dec. While most parts of the country may receive above-normal rainfall during Oct-Dec, parts of the northwest, northeast, and extreme southern India are likely to get below-normal rainfall, the weather agency said in its monthly rainfall and temperature forecast for October and Oct-Dec.   

 

For October, the weather department has forecast above-normal rainfall for the country at 115% of the long-period average. Most parts of India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during October. However, some areas in northwest India, the extreme south of peninsular India, and isolated pockets in northeast India may experience below-normal rainfall, it said.

 

Normal to below-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most of India in October, except in the northeast and adjoining east India, the western Himalayan states, and Saurashtra and Kutch. There is a high probability of above normal maximum temperatures over northeast India. "Above-normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country with high probability over east, northeast and east central India," IMD said.

 

Although the southwest monsoon officially ends on Sept. 30, its withdrawal has stalled currently due to multiple weather systems causing rainfall over central, southern, and eastern India, the IMD said. The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from India may continue beyond Oct. 12, IMD Director General

Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra said. The monsoon withdrawal began on Sept. 14 this season, ahead of the normal date of Sept. 17. Typically, the monsoon withdraws from the entire country around Oct. 15. 

 

India received 8?ove-normal rainfall at 937.2 millimetres during the southwest monsoon season, the fifth-highest since 2001. The rainfall over northwest India during the season was 127% of the long-period average at 747.9 millimetres, which is the highest over the region since 2001.

 

The weather agency said there is a 71% chance of the La Nia conditions forming during Oct-Dec. La Nia results in more favourable rainfall over the country, while El Nio is linked to drier, hotter weather in India. However, the current sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific are near average, indicating neutral El Nio-Southern Oscillation. 

 

There are also weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevailing. The weather bureau said that negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are expected to continue beyond the southwest monsoon season. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole results in less rainfall in India, whereas a positive index leads to increased rainfall.

 

In September, India received 193.6 millimetres of rainfall, 15.3?ove the normal of 167.9 mm, the department said. In its monthly forecast for September, the weather bureau had predicted rainfall during the month at 109% of the long-period average. In September, there was one deep depression and a depression formed over the country. There are also two low-pressure areas developed over the north Bay of Bengal during the month.

 

Rainfall in September over central India was 43.7?ove normal at 255.3 millimetres, that over south India was 11.8?ove normal at 179 millimetres, and northwest India recorded 30.7?ove normal showers at 134.2 millimetres. However, east and northeast India recorded 30.7?low normal at 195.9 millimetres.  End

 

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi and Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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