More Stories

Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025

 

By Gopika Balasubramanium

 

MUMBAI – Analysts at Nomura Global Markets Research and Nuvama Institutional Equities expect domestic passenger vehicle sales in September to have risen 3–7% on year, buoyed by a cut in goods and services tax rates coupled with festive demand. Data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers showed monthly passenger vehicle sales have declined year-on-year for the previous four months. While two-wheeler wholesale sales volumes are likely be in high single digit, tractor volumes may rise 11% in September.

 

Automobile companies are set to announce their September wholesale sales figures starting Wednesday. Brokerage firms said there was a surge in enquiries and bookings at showrooms as soon as Navratri started on Sept. 22, when the reduced GST rates also come into effect. Demand for small cars likely increased sharply after GST cuts and as companies also offered discounts, according to brokerage reports. 

 

"Based on initial inquiries, the demand from premium hatch and SUVs (sport utility vehicles) has continued to be healthy, while small cars have seen (an) uptick in bookings by 30-40% limited to rural areas," YES Securities said.

 

Maruti Suzuki India holds a huge portfolio of small cars and has been vocal about consumer reaction post the GST reforms. "The response from customers has been phenomenal -– something we haven't seen in the last 35 years," Partho Banerjee, head of sales and marketing at Maruti Suzuki India, had said last week. He also said the company recorded 80,000 enquiries on the first day of Navratri.

 

While Maruti Suzuki has come out with positive commentary on festive demand, brokerage estimates for the company were not all positive. Nomura expects the company's domestic passenger vehicle sales to decline over 3% on year in September, while Nuvama expects the same to rise nearly 6%.

 

Tata Motors Ltd. told analysts on Monday that the entry car segment may see a temporary uptick in sales due to GST cuts, but the long-term trend of customers moving towards compact sport utility vehicles and premium segments should continue, according to Nomura which attend the company's analysts' meet. Nomura expects Tata Motors to report a near 22% rise in wholesale sales volumes for the passenger vehicle segment, while Nuvama expects the segment to show an over 13% rise.

 

For Mahindra & Mahindra's passenger vehicle segment, Nuvama sees a 15.5% growth in domestic wholesale sales volumes for the month. while Nomura expects the utility vehicle sales for the company to rise nearly 8%.

 

TWO-WHEELERS

GST cuts likely boosted sales of two-wheelers in September. However, the deadline for mandatory anti-lock braking system implementation from January is unchanged and continues to be a key risk to monitor, Nomura said. In the near term, the growth outlook for this category remains robust, especially led by festive demand.

 

Nomura and Nuvama estimate a 7-9% on year rise in two-wheeler wholesale sales volumes for September, which includes domestic sales and exports. YES Securities said demand from urban markets was much better compared with the demand in rural markets during Navratri. The brokerage expects demand in rural markets to come back strongly during Diwali.

 

Nuvama estimates total volumes of Eicher Motors' Royal Enfield motorbikes to surge 54% on year to 134,000 units for the month. The brokerage sees a near 10% rise in volumes for TVS Motor, a 6.5% rise in volumes for Bajaj Auto, and a 5% increase in sales of Hero MotoCorp for September. 

 

TRACTORS, CVS

The wholesale sales of tractors are likely to rise at a faster pace than other segments. While Nuvama sees the tractor industry wholesale volumes to have increased 11% on year, Nomura sees the segment's volumes growing 11%. Both brokerages said the rise in wholesale tractor sales was mainly driven by goods and services tax cut and positive sentiment among rural consumers. "On the brighter side, farmer sentiment is positive in anticipation of a surplus rainfall season," Nuvama said. 

 

Nomura expects Mahindra & Mahindra to have sold 49,800 tractors to dealerships during September, up 12.5% on year. Nuvama has pencilled in an 11% on-year growth for M&M-made tractors.

 

Nuvama said the domestic commercial vehicle wholesale sales will grow 6% on year owing to a favourable base and pick-up in execution of infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, Nomura sees the medium and heavy commercial vehicle wholesale volumes to rise 7% on year in September. "We are optimistic, keeping in view the potential of the replacement cycle," it said.  End 

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.