Bank Stocks Outlook
Current levels to sustain; focus on RBI policy outcome
This story was originally published at 20:25 IST on 26 September 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, Sept. 26, 2025
MUMBAI – The Nifty Bank index is expected to hover near the current levels next week due to heightened uncertainty in the global markets, analysts said. "The market is grappling with several headwinds, including heavy FII (foreign institutional investment) outflows, uncertainty over US–India trade, a weakening rupee, and the rising allure of bullion, leaving investors on edge," Bajaj Broking said in a note.
The sectoral index fell 1.9% this week and closed at 54389.35 points Friday, with most of its constituents ending in the red. AU Small Finance Bank was the only gainer on Friday. The stock rose 0.2%. On the other hand, IndusInd Bank led the losers and was down 3.8%.
In its technical view, Kotak Securities said, "For Bank Nifty, the 20-day SMA (simple moving average) or 54,750 would be a crucial zone. Below this, the chances of hitting 54,000-53,800 increase. However, if it sustains above the 20-day SMA or 54,750, it could bounce back to the 50-day SMA or 55,300-55,500. Short-term traders should remain cautious and be very selective, as there is a risk of getting trapped at lower levels."
Market participants will be keen on the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel is expected to hold the interest rates for the second meeting in a row after the country's GDP grew faster than expected in the June quarter, according to economists polled by Informist. While eleven of the 15 economists polled by Informist expect the committee to keep the repo rate unchanged, Barclays, Capital Economics, Morgan Stanley, and Nomura see a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the meeting next week. In August, the six-member panel unanimously left the repo rate unchanged at 5.50%. The committee has reduced the policy repo rate by 100 bps so far in 2025.
TOP HEADLINES
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* REC step-down arm to be given to successful bidder of govt's power project
* IPO Alert: Anand Rathi Share offer subscribed 21 times on final day
* Bandhan Bk appoints Avijit Mukerji as non-executive non-independent director
* ICRA revises outlook on IIFL Finance's CPs to negative from stable
* Go Digit receives INR-116.58-mln show-cause notice from GST authority
* CARE assigns 'A1+' rtg to Bank of Baroda's INR-200-bln CD
* NCLAT sends back to NCLT Rare Asset, Check-Inn IBC plan for Rajesh Business
* Karur Vysya Bank to lower base rate, BPLR by 70 bps each from Saturday
* Banks must focus on MSME, see oversaturation in retail lending: Sitharaman
* RBI issues framework on authentication mechanism for digital payment norms
* Plutus Wealth Mgmt sells 26.6 mln shrs of Sammaan Capital via open mkt sale
* RBI paper flags customer support and service, technical issues at fintechs
* Fund flow to commercial sector INR 35.1 tln FY25 on equity raise - RBI paper
* RBI paper bats for infra invest to boost growth, lists ways to fund projects
* S&P Global assigns 'BBB' long-term rating to Bank of Maharashtra
* Niva Bupa Health Insurance appoints Milind Gajanan Barve as chairman
* Motilal Oswal arm buys 1.1 mln pref shares,1.6 mln equity shares of Kusumgar
* India Jul outstanding NRI deposits at $167.86 bln, up $10.71 bln on year
* IFSCA allows Bank of Baroda GIFT City branch to conduct bullion trading ops
* Income tax dept issues INR-2.5-bln refund to New India Assurance
* Crisil arm Crisil Canada to buy McKinsey PriceMetrix for $38 mln
* NFO: SBI Mutual Fund to launch magnum hybrid long-short fund on Oct 1
* IPO Alert: Anand Rathi Share issue fully subscribed on second day
* ICRA assigns 'AA-' rtg to Nuvama Wealth's INR 10-bln mkt-linked debentures
* Some lenders release encumbrance on YES Bk's 4% stake via Deutsche Bk units
* NFO: Jio BlackRock MF launches open-ended JioBlackRock Flexi Cap Fund
* NFO: Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund launches Kotak Nifty 200 Momentum 30 ETF
* PRESS: PhonePe files DRHP for INR 120-bln OFS via confidential route
* ICICI Bank gets GST notice for INR 156.09 mln from West Bengal govt
* IPO Alert: Anand Rathi Share offer subscribed 41% as of first day
* IPO Alert: Canara Robeco AMC files updated DRHP with SEBI for IPO
* Central Bank of India partners C2FO Factoring for invoice discounting svcs
* Sumitomo Mitsui buys 4.2% stake in YES Bank Mon via off-market sale
* JM Fincl cos pay INR 64.7 mln to settle SEBI probe in Piramal Ent NCD issue
* Capri Global board OKs prospectus of INR 4-bln NCDs via public issue
* IPO Alert: Anand Rathi Share raises INR 2.20 bln from anchor investors
* NFO: Kotak Mahindra MF to launch open-ended Kotak Nifty Chemical ETF
* SC asks govt to seriously look at secured asset resumption laws for change
* Rail Vikas emerges lowest bidder for Southern Railway's INR-1.45-bln project
* India Bonds Placements: Godrej Industries board OKs INR 8-bln NCD allotment
* Tata Investment Corp sets Oct 14 as record date for 10-for-1 stock split
* SEBI issues paper on technical glitches in trading systems of stock brokers
* IndusInd Bank appoints Viral Damania as CFO effective Mon
* NBCC gets INR 1.17-bln work order from HUDCO
* IRCTC reduces prices of Rail Neer bottles by INR 1 per piece post lower GST
* PRESS: Digital gold purchases surge on hopes of further rise in prices
* IIFCL plans to raise $500 mln from overseas market by Dec, says deputy MD
* SEBI issues draft circular for reporting AIF units' values to depositories
* CCIL could explore currency trading platform beyond dlr/rupee - RBI Malhotra
* HUDCO inks pact with NBCC for four construction projects
* India Ratings affirms IDBI Bank's long-term ratings at 'AA', outlook stable
* Currant Sea Invest gets right to appoint 1 director on IDFC FIRST Bk board
Following are the resistance and support levels for key bank stocks for next week as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:
| Company | Price | Week-on-Week Change in % | Resistance | Support |
| AU Small Finance Bank | 743.2 | 3.40 | 766.40 | 729.90 |
| Axis Bank | 1154.00 | 1.60 | 1178.90 | 1135.50 |
| Bank of Baroda | 248.45 | (-)1.40 | 255.30 | 243.70 |
| Canara Bank | 118.08 | 0.30 | 123.10 | 115.00 |
| Federal Bank | 191.82 | (-)3.10 | 195.90 | 188.20 |
| HDFC Bank | 945.05 | (-)2.30 | 956.10 | 935.80 |
| ICICI Bank | 1359.60 | (-)3.00 | 1378.80 | 1347.40 |
| IDFC FIRST Bank | 68.59 | (-)4.40 | 70.40 | 67.50 |
| IndusInd Bank | 712.75 | (-)4.30 | 754.10 | 690.00 |
| Kotak Mahindra Bank | 1994.80 | (-)1.80 | 2031.10 | 1970.90 |
| Punjab National Bank | 107.79 | (-)4.90 | 112.90 | 104.80 |
| State Bank of India | 856.95 | (-)0.60 | 869.50 | 846.80 |
| Nifty Bank | 54389.35 | (-)1.90 | 55118.50 | 53946.40 |
| Nifty 50 | 24654.70 | (-)2.70 | 24956.70 | 24478.40 |
| S&P BSE Sensex | 80426.46 | (-)2.70 | 81298.00 | 79896.60 |
|
End
Reported by Kabir Sharma
Edited by Ashish Shirke
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