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Informist, Friday, Sept. 26, 2025

By Akash Mandal

MUMBAI – The Nifty 50 is likely to fall further next week and test the 24500-24300 level, as indicated by the surge in premiums across out-of-the-money put strikes and open interest. However, the 50-stock index is unlikely to fall below 24000 points, which will now act as a crucial support, derivatives analysts said.

The Nifty 50 has fallen nearly 3% this week and is likely to fall further next week. The Nifty 50's derivatives contracts for September are likely to expire at around 24500-24550 points Tuesday, Pankaj Karde, executive vice-president and head of institutional sales and trading at BoB Capital Markets, said.

Friday, the index closed at 24654.70 points, down 236.15 points or 1%, extending its losing run for the sixth straight session. Sentiment became cautious after the US raised the fee on H-1B visas last week and slapped 100% tariff on pharmaceutical imports this week.

On the put side, traders bought out-of-the-money strikes at 24400-24600 strikes. These contracts have the highest addition of open interest. Premiums across these strikes surged 180-300%. The highest concentration of open interest remained at 24500-24000 strikes, again indicating near-term caution. 

There was selling across strikes on the call side, with the 25000 strike having the maximum concentration of open interest at over 19 million. The premium on this contract also plunged nearly 83%. Out-of-the-money call strikes saw comparatively higher addition of open interest Friday than put contracts. The highest addition of open interest was seen at the 24750-24900 strikes, with traders adding 5 million-14 million positions.

While India's equity market has underperformed other emerging markets since September 2024, HSBC Global Investment Research now finds it attractive. "Valuations have fallen--the premium to the region is back at historical levels--while lower inflation and easing measures should support growth," it said in a strategy report. The brokerage expects foreign players to start returning to Indian equities because of multiple factors.

Fund positioning in the Taiwan and South Korea markets, which were replacements for the Indian market, is now "very crowded" and any artificial intelligence-related shocks could result in a reversal of flows, the brokerage said. Other factors include imminent rotation of foreign players in emerging markets and positive developments related to US trade talks. 

--Nifty 50 September closed at 24700.00, down 267.70 points; 45.30-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 October closed at 24819.70, down 274.00 points; 165.00-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 November closed at 24950.00, down 279.60 points; 295.30-point premium to the spot index

HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finance, Infosys, Eternal, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti Suzuki India, State Bank of India, Tata Consultancy Services, Mahindra & Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, JSW Steel, and Hero MotoCorp were the most active underlying stocks Friday.  End

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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