Informist Poll
Aug IIP growth seen at 15-month high of 5.5% on low base effect
This story was originally published at 17:46 IST on 26 September 2025
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – India's industrial sector production likely grew at a 15-month high pace of 5.5% in August largely because of a low base effect, according to an Informist poll of 10 economists. Industrial output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, was at a four-month high of 3.5% in July and 0.0% in August last year.
Estimates in the poll ranged from 3.2% to 6.4%. The statistics ministry will release the IIP data for August at 1600 IST Monday.
The base effect in August is such that if the overall index remains unchanged from July, IIP growth will be 6.3%. The general index had declined 2.7% on month in August 2024. At 5.5% on-year growth, the index would fall 0.8% on month in August.
Apart from the base effect, improvement in the manufacturing sector is expected to have aided industrial output in August, as reflected in high frequency indicators. "Industrial production growth in August is expected to rebound from the weakness of the previous two months, aided by positive momentum in core sectors and manufacturing, with mining likely to provide a notable boost," Union Bank of India said in a report.
Core sector growth, which accounts for over 40% of the total weight of the IIP, also picked up in August because of a low base effect. The growth in output of India's eight core industries rose to 6.3% in August, the highest since May 2024. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to an over-17-year high of 59.3 in August.
Vehicle production grew on year in August but the pace of growth moderated compared with July. Vehicle production grew 8.1% on year in August compared with 10.7% growth in July. The number of e-way bills generated in August rose 22.4% on year, slower than 25.8% in July, which was the highest since October 2023.
"From a use-based classification perspective, recovery in aggregate demand may have continued to pick up in August IIP as was witnessed in previous two months," Union Bank of India said. "The overall consumer IIP is expected to be around 4%."
Following is the summary of the poll on IIP growth in August:
| ORGANISATION | IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 3.2% |
| CareEdge Ratings | 4.5% |
| ANZ Bank India | 4.7% |
| Capital Economics | 5.0% |
| ICRA | 5.5% |
| Union Bank of India | 5.5% |
| QuantEco Research | 5.7% |
| HDFC Bank | 6.0% |
| Standard Chartered | 6.1% |
| ICICI Bank | 6.4% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Rajeev Pai
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