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Informist, Friday, Sept. 26, 2025

MUMBAI – The global natural gas market is poised for a significant shift, with the US Henry Hub gas prices expected to strengthen in 2025 compared to 2024, FitchSolutions company BMI said in a report. Analysts at BMI have forecast a substantial 45.8% growth in average prices to $3.5 per million British thermal units in 2025 from $2.4 per million British thermal units in 2024. This sharp increase is driven by the growing demand from the US liquefied natural gas sector, the report said. In 2026, BMI expects natural gas prices to average $3.8 per million British thermal units, due to rise in LNG exports and robust seasonal winter demand.

Gas prices in Europe have shown more stability in the last one month, particularly at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility. Prices have stabilised in the low 30s euro per megawatt hour due to consistent build-up in storage and steady LNG supplies from the US. However, BMI expects Dutch Title Transfer Facility prices to average 40 euro per megawatt hour this year due to higher prices during the first half of 2025.

In 2026, BMI expects Dutch Title Transfer Facility prices to fall to 32 euro per megawatt hour. "...storage is on track to reach its winter targets of 90% capacity well before December 1, which will prevent a major surge in prices over winter, assuming weather conditions remain within in historical norms," BMI said. A potential factor introducing further downside risk to European prices involves China's role in the global LNG trade. If China diverts US LNG cargoes to Europe, the increased supply could weigh on the prices, the report said. However, China purchased only 5% of its LNG from the US in 2024, the report said.

US President Donald Trump's push that the European Union immediately accelerate its move away from Russian oil and gas supplies creates a notable upside risk to gas prices. This acceleration could happen if major consumers like France, Belgium, and Spain quickly terminate their Russian LNG imports. However, the core expectation is that the EU will maintain its current strategy, sticking to the timeline established in the RePowerEU plan to end all imports by the close of 2027, BMI said.  End

US$1 = INR 88.69

Reported by Udita S. Jaiswal

Edited by Ashish Shirke

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