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Informist, Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025

 

By Simran Rede

  

MUMBAI – The Nifty 50 is likely to remain rangebound and is expected to test the 25500 level Friday, analysts said. The market is expected to move in a range till there is a major development in the trade deal talks between India and the US, they said. Earlier in the day, Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran said the US may soon scrap the punitive 25% tariff imposed on Indian goods. He said the US will also lower the  reciprocal tariff to 10–15% from the current 25%, adding that he expects the tariff situation to resolve in 8–10 weeks. 

 

On Thursday, the Nifty 50 settled at 25423.60 points, up 93.35 points or 0.4%. The BSE Sensex ended at 83013.96 points, up 320.25 points or 0.4%. Both indices rose suddenly in the final hour of trade, with gains in banking, financial services, and information technology stocks leading to the rise in the Nifty 50. The 50-stock index is just 246 points away from its highest level reached in 2025, and nearly 854 points far from its record high of 26277.40 points touched in September 2024.

 

After closing above 25400 level, the support levels of the Nifty 50 have risen from the earlier predictions, analysts said. The Nifty 50 is expected to face resistance at 25520-25565 levels and find support at 25330-25275 points, Vipin Kumar, assistant vice-president of equity research and senior derivatives analyst at Globe Capital Market, said. Going ahead, a trade deal with the US will be a "big positive for markets" and one "can hope for new highs", Kumar said. The Nifty 50 is also expected to touch 25700 points in the next 10 trading sessions, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research at Ventura Securities, said.

 

The 25-basis-point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve was expected and already priced in by the market along with two additional rate cuts in 2025, analysts said. The market was also expecting two to three more trims in 2026, while the US policymakers hinted at just one rate cut in 2026. The Fed attributed the current and upcoming rate cuts to the weakening of the labour market by calling the latest cut as "risk management". 

 

Weakness in the dollar will spur capital inflows through carry trades and foreign investments, which will boost India's stock market and support the 7% GDP growth trajectory, Bolinjkar said. Foreign investment inflows into the Indian market are expected by December, he added. Foreign investors were net sellers in recent times and offloaded over INR 1.39 trillion worth of equities in India so far in  2025, according to the data by National Securities Depository Ltd. "A mutually agreeable resolution to ongoing trade negotiations with the US would eliminate policy uncertainty and restore FII confidence in Indian markets," Dhiraj Relli, managing director and chief executive officer of HDFC Securities, said in a note. 

 

Corporate earnings for the September quarter are not expected to be "great", a head of research at a domestic brokerage said. The above-normal monsoon, goods and services tax rate rationalisation, and delayed purchase due to these reforms are expected to drive the December quarter earnings, he said. "A robust and well-distributed monsoon season will boost agricultural output, enhance rural incomes, and drive consumption across FMCG, automobiles, and consumer durables sectors. With Oct-Mar expected to drive earnings recovery, improved corporate performance will lead to higher stock prices," Relli of HDFC Securities said.    

 

While the GST rejig, good rains, and income tax tweaks are seen as positive factors for Indian corporate earnings, concerns around subdued growth in income or wages in the country pose a risk to the growth of the economy, the head of research mentioned above said. Additionally, the US tariffs on Indian imports are expected to put a burden on the country's economy, he said.  End

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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