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Informist, Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025

 

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--Metals Focus Sheth: See gold rallying $100-$200/oz in 6 months on COMEX
--CONTEXT: Chirag Sheth of Metals Focus in interview with Informist
--Metals Focus Sheth: See gold consolidating after rising to $4,000/oz
--Metals Focus Sheth: See silver underperforming gold in short-term
--Metals Focus Sheth: See silver perform well over next 1-2 years
--Metals Focus Sheth: Lower ticket size customers buying 18-14 carat jewellery
--Metals Focus Sheth: Don't see 9 carat gold jewellery competing with silver
--Metals Focus Sheth: Don't see central banks cutting down on gold purchases
--Metals Focus Sheth:Lack of regulation raises questions on digital gold buys

 

By J. Navya Sruthi, Ashutosh Pati, and Abhijit Doshi

 

MUMBAI – So far in 2025, gold prices have risen by over 40% to a new all-time high of $3,744 per ounce on the COMEX and INR 110,666 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India. However, Chirag Sheth, principal consultant for India at global precious metals research consultancy Metals Focus, says the rally is "not over yet".

 

He expects gold prices to rally by another $100-$200 per ounce in the next six months, and that a correction is only likely after gold touches the $4,000 per ounce mark on the COMEX. "But obviously, given the way gold prices have increased and given the growing uncertainty with regards to the global trade, (and the issue of) Fed independence, these days anything is quite possible," Sheth told Informist in a telephonic conversation Wednesday.

 

Sheth expects a bit of consolidation after gold prices touch $4,000 per ounce, but said it is difficult to give an exact timeline as to when it may happen. "You may see a bit of breather, profit booking, people trying to reassess their position. So, that is something which can happen, but it's very difficult to give a call at this moment definitively when."

If geopolitical tensions and trade war uncertainties ease, there will be a "fairly decent amount of correction", he added.

 

The average price of gold is expected to rise to $3,430 per ounce in the December quarter from the forecast of $3,415 per ounce for the September quarter. In Jan-Mar period of 2026, Metals Focus sees the average price of gold at $3,450 per ounce.

 

Commenting on domestic bullion prices, Sheth said the depreciation of the rupee has an impact on these prices. "...if gold prices in the international market increased by 10%, and if the rupee depreciates by 5%, so the impact in the Indian market is 25%," Sheth said.

 

In the recent past, with both gold and silver pricing galloping, some experts have started favouring silver over gold as a better investment. However, even though prices of silver have surged this year and are trading near a 14-year high on COMEX, Sheth does not expect prices will reach a new record high this year. Rather, in the short term, silver could underperform gold a bit due to uncertainties over global trade.

 

The average silver price is seen at $38.2 per ounce in the December quarter, slightly up from the forecast of $38.1 per ounce for the September quarter. During Jan-Mar 2026, the firm sees the average silver price at $39.0 per ounce.

 

Over the next year or two, silver prices could perform fairly well, Sheth said. There is growing demand for silver in industrial usage such as in photovoltaics, solar, and electric vehicles. "As your cars become more high-tech, you require more silver contacts in your cars. There are more touchpoints where silver is getting used. Your defence (sector), your missile batteries, torpedo batteries are where silver gets used", Sheth said.

 

Currently, central banks have been major buyers of the yellow metal. Will they now turn to silver? "Given the way, there is whole positive sentiment towards silver, especially since the market has been in deficit for quite some time," Sheth said. However, this does not mean that central banks will cut their purchases of gold, he added. The purchases of gold are probably linked to de-dollarisation as central banks are looking to move away from the dollar as a strategic asset towards gold.

 

These robust gold prices for the past few months have introduced a few interesting trends in the Indian jewellery market. The lower middle class, which is the large section of gold consumers, has shifted from higher carat jewellery to lower carat ones.

 

Robust gold prices have had an impact on lower ticket-size gold jewellery priced at INR 50,000, INR 60,000, and INR 100,000 while there has been "a consistent shift towards 18- and 14-carat jewellery because those are easier to the price pocket," Sheth said. Generally, people prefer to buy 22-carat gold jewellery.

 

"In India, people usually go to the stores with a fixed budget in mind. Now, given the fact that gold prices have increased so much and the budgets remain limited on a volume basis, you are seeing an impact."

 

Another trend seen is the reduction in weight of bridal jewellery, where consumers are showing interest in 18-carat items rather than in 22-carat. However, demand for bridal jewellery has been better than the daily-wear segment because of its importance in weddings in India, Sheth said.

 

When asked if the recent hallmarking of 9-carat gold jewellery will compete with demand for silver jewellery, Sheth said it is too early to predict what this segment will compete with, as only one or two companies have actually started with the 9-carat jewellery. The government on Jul. 18 approved hallmarking standards for 9-carat gold, making it officially part of the Bureau of Indian Standards' hallmarking system.

 

However, Sheth expects the hallmarking could shift some consumers towards 9-carat jewellery from the 14- and 18-carat ones. "There could be a bit of competition coming in for silver from those (9-carat gold) daily wear modern pieces, but it's too early to comment at this moment."

 

Talking about the yellow metal's share in retail investor's portfolio, Sheth said professional fund managers and money managers are now increasingly advising their clients to invest in gold because of higher returns. "I think the share of gold as a part of your portfolio keeps on changing. There are times when people hold 5% to 10% of gold in their portfolio. In current times, you would have seen these now increase to 10% to 20%." Even gold and silver exchange-traded funds in India are attracting more flows, he said.

 

Sheth added that digital gold has helped to bring in a new set of consumers into the gold market and has been doing very well. However, the growth has stagnated a bit due to a lack of regulations. Lack of regulation raises many questions.

 

In global markets, gold has always been mainstream and money managers have always had exposure to gold, Sheth said. Gold has become far more mainstream globally in recent years, he added. In India also, it has become far more mainstream in the financial space, because, as Indians, we have always been buying gold either in the form of jewellery or bars and coins.  End

 

US$1 = INR 88.13

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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