More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025

By Simran Rede

MUMBAI – The market is likely to keep its upward momentum Thursday after the Nifty 50 closed over 25300 points for the first time in over two months, analysts said. However, there is some caution ahead of the widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut by the US Federal Open Market Committee. Market participants will also await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell to gauge the US interest rate trajectory going ahead.

On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 closed at 25330.25 points, up 91.15 points or 0.4%. It moved in a 72-point range during the session. The BSE Sensex closed at 82693.71 points, up 313.02 points or 0.4%. The Nifty 50 is expected to cross its resistance of 25500 points in the coming sessions, analysts said, while on the other hand, it will find support at 25000 levels. The market will witness some volatility following the Fed's decision later in the day, they said.

The US Fed's forward guidance on further easing of the Fed funds rates will guide the movement in the market, analysts said. In case the FOMC continues to guide more rate cuts in 2025, and if Powell's comments are thought to be dovish in tone, analysts expect the market to rise further.

The market has already priced in the 25-basis-point rate cut in the meeting later in the day, responding to labour market deterioration shown in recent economic data. The CME FedWatch tool suggested a 94% probability of the Fed reducing its key interest rate by 25 basis points and a 6% chance of a 50 bps cut. Market participants anticipate a total of 75 bps rate cut by the Fed in 2025. They expect a 25-bps reduction at the Fed's October and December meetings. 

On the flip side, any neutral stance or less dovish comments without a clear roadmap for additional cuts could trigger a couple of percentage points of downside, an analyst at a domestic brokerage said. Market participants are likely to focus more on progress in the US-India trade deal, which remains under negotiation, rather than the Fed's rate decision—largely seen as already priced in, Motilal Oswal Wealth Management said in a report. 

Additionally, renewed hope for an early trade agreement between India and the US is likely to aid a rise in the market, according to analysts. Officials from both sides tagged the latest round of talks as "constructive" and "forward-looking," which boosted confidence in the possibility of a favourable outcome, Bajaj Broking Research said in a note. This development was particularly well-received by investors, who see stronger trade ties with the US as a positive for economic growth and corporate earnings, the brokerage said.

Sonal Badhan, economist at Bank of Baroda, believes that global markets, including India, have mostly priced in the uncertainty around a US-led trade war and are now shifting their focus towards other economic fundamentals. In India, the rationalisation of goods and services tax and front-loading of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India will be supportive of growth and would help cushion Indian equity markets from external shocks, she said.

On the valuation front, India has always been a high-valuation market, but the valuations are lower compared to last year, top officials of Jefferies said at Jefferies India Forum 2025, according to an ET Now X post. Jefferies' Global Head of Equities Peter Forlenza believes India is seeing increased interest from foreign investors. 

Jeffries Head-India Research and Equity Strategist Mahesh Nandurkar expects 8–9% returns from the Indian market over the next 12 months. Nandurkar believes banks and non-banking financial services are attractively valued, while select consumer stocks seem very expensive. He expects a temporary revival in sentiment around information technology stocks and sees cautious optimism over India-US bilateral trade deal negotiations.

Adding to the domestic positive factors, ET Now reported that the finance ministry held a meeting with various ministries and departments to explore new avenues for capital expenditure. The government is exploring ways to enhance capex beyond INR 11.21 trillion for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), it said.  End

Edited by Saji George Titus

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.