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Informist, Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025

 

By Simran Rede

 

MUMBAI – Indian headline equity indices are expected to maintain their northward trend Wednesday. With the comeback of bulls in the market, analysts expect the Nifty 50 to test the 25350 levels in the immediate near term. Ongoing trade negotiations between India and the US, along with the two-day policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve starting Tuesday, are likely to keep the mood upbeat, analysts said. The CME FedWatch tool suggests a 95.8% probability of the Fed reducing its key interest rates by 25 basis points and a 4.2% chance of a 50-bps cut. 

 

The Nifty 50 settled at 25239.10 points, up 169.90 points or 0.7%. The BSE Sensex ended at 82380.69 points, up 594.95 points or 0.7%. The 50-stock index closed at its highest level in over two months, and the 30-stock index ended at an over-one-month-high.

 

The trade negotiations between India and the US resumed Tuesday, with representatives of both sides meeting in New Delhi to discuss ways to take the negotiations forward. "This is not an official round of negotiations, but it will definitely be a discussion on the trade talks and trying to see how we can reach an agreement between India and the US," BBC quoted Special Secretary Rajesh Agrawal, who is leading the discussions on India's behalf, as saying on Monday ahead of US Assistant Trade Representative for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch's visit. 

 

Meanwhile, the Indian government is planning a strategy under which it will identify 100 products that have strong domestic capacity. The move is aimed at cutting imports of these 100 products and to bolster India's "aatmanirbhar" vision, a commerce ministry official said. Some of the products already identified by the ministry are from sectors like plastic, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, the official said. The ministry will be ready with a list of 100 products with strong domestic capacity by the end of September, the official added. 

 

India's merchandise exports to the US in August slumped to a nine-month low as Washington's steep tariffs on Indian goods took effect in the first week of the month. Indian exports to the US fell 14.3% on month to $6.87 billion in August, the lowest value since November, according to data released by the commerce ministry on Monday. On a year-on-year basis, exports to the US were up 7.2% in August, the slowest growth since November. 

 

Despite a bullish trend seen on technical charts, on the fundamental front, analysts expect the market to be rangebound. It will break out of this rangebound movement only after any development in the US-India trade deal, a head of research at a domestic brokerage said. 

 

While foreign investors have continuously sold Indian equities and have made "extreme" short positions, domestic investors have been supporting the market. Unless India's corporate earnings growth improves and the dollar depreciates, foreign investors will not start investing in India, he said. "They (foreign investors) have much better markets than India, such as South Korea and Taiwan. Why would they invest in India where wage growth, job growth, and income growth are low," he added. 

 

Back home, automobile stocks gained the most Tuesday on optimism about an increase in demand for vehicles of all categories post the goods and services tax rejig. "Auto and consumer durable stocks outperformed (Tuesday), ahead of the rollout of new GST rates and festive-driven demand expectations," Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Investments, said in a note. "Going forward, investor attention will remain on trade discussions, while strong domestic macro fundamentals are expected to drive upward earnings revisions, supporting current valuations and mitigating downside risks," he said.  End

 

US$1 = INR 88.0525

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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