More Stories

Informist, Monday, Sept. 15, 2025

MUMBAI – BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has lowered its price forecast for the Chicago Board of Trade-listed second-month rice futures for 2025 to $12.80 per 100 pounds from its earlier projection of $13.90 per 100 pounds. The main reason for the bearish outlook is the expectation of abundant supplies, particularly in India, the largest exporter of the grain, it said.

Since India eased export restrictions on rice in September 2024, developments affecting the country's harvest and trading have been the main factors driving price movements, BMI said in the report. The firm believes India's rice production rose nearly 9% on year in 2024-25 to up to 150 million tonnes. While its growth forecast for rice production in India in 2025-26 may be lower on year at 0.5%, the research firm says it will again cross 150 million tonnes--a record harvest--highlighting the continuing oversupply in the market. Additionally, a strong monsoon season in India this year also points to higher production as most of the crop in the country is grown during this season.

According to BMI's view, the global rice market will remain in a surplus through the remainder of its forecast period till 2028-29. However, unfavourable weather conditions in major producing markets remain a risk and could result in decreased production in specific seasons, it noted.

On the global level, production for 2025-26 is expected to increase 0.4% on year, outpaced by the growth in consumption at 1.8% on year, resulting in a continued, albeit smaller, market surplus, BMI said in the report. Global production will increase to 542 million tonnes in 2025-26, consumption will increase to 539.4 million, and the market balance will decrease to 2.6 million tonnes from 10.2 million tonnes. "We expect consumption to increase by a greater magnitude than production, driven both by normal demand associated with population growth, urbanisation, as well as the sharp decline in rice prices over recent months," BMI said.  End

US$1 = INR 88.21

Reported by Reshma Ravi

Edited by Nishant Maher

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.