More Stories

Informist, Monday, Sept. 15, 2025

MUMBAI – The southwest monsoon began withdrawing from parts of Rajasthan on Sunday, three days ahead of its normal date of withdrawal, the India Meteorological Department said. The southwest monsoon usually begins withdrawing from the country around Sept. 17, and it withdraws from the entire country around Oct. 15.

The line of withdrawal of southwest monsoon is currently passing through Sri Ganganagar, Nagaur, Jodhpur, and Barmer in Rajasthan, the weather department said. The withdrawal has begun after the fulfilment of three criteria, which include the development of an anti-cyclonic circulation over west Rajasthan at 1.5 km above mean sea level, no rainfall over the region in the past five consecutive days, and a fall in the moisture content of the atmosphere over the region up to middle troposphere.

Conditions are favourable for the withdrawal of monsoon from some more parts of Rajasthan and some parts of Punjab and Gujarat in the next two to three days, the department said.

This year, the southwest monsoon hit the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal date of Jun. 1, and by May 29 the monsoon current covered southern and northeast India entirely, and parts of east and central India. However, after May 29, the monsoon was in a weak phase and resumed advancing only on Jun. 16. The monsoon covered entire India on Jun. 29, nine days before the normal date of Jul. 8.

So far in the current season till Sunday, the country has received 846.4 millimetres of rainfall, 7% above the normal for the period, according to the weather department's data. Rainfall in September is likely to be above normal at 109% of the long-period average over most parts of the country, according to the department. "Some parts of northeast and east India, many parts of extreme south peninsular India, and some parts of northernmost India, are likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September," it said.

Meanwhile, private weather forecaster Skymet said a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event is very likely during the withdrawal phase of the southwest monsoon over India. "The Indian Ocean Dipole is in the early stages of a negative IOD phase," it said. Currently, there is a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole. However, the past seven weeks of the Indian Ocean Dipole index have been below the negative Indian Ocean Dipole threshold, the agency said. The latest Indian Ocean Dipole index for the week ended Sunday was (-)1.27 degrees Celsius. 

Sustained index values less than or equal to (-) 0.4 degrees Celsius for at least eight weeks are typical of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole is a climate phenomenon where waters on the eastern side of the Indian Ocean become warmer than average while the western side, near Africa, becomes cooler.

Currently, none of the oceanic parameters favour a strong push for the monsoon current, the private weather agency said. "Cool equatorial Pacific nearing La Nina threshold, negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, and incoherent Madden-Julian Oscillation, working in tandem, may retard monsoon activity in its closing phase." These events may "hasten" the withdrawal of monsoon, starting with northern India, the agency said.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.