Informist Poll
Aug WPI inflation seen rising to 0.3% from 2-year low in Jul
This story was originally published at 15:47 IST on 12 September 2025
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By Shubham Rana
NEW DELHI – Wholesale prices in India likely increased year-on-year for the first time in three months in August with WPI inflation seen rising to a four-month high of 0.3% last month, according to an Informist poll of 10 economists. WPI inflation is seen rising in August because of a statistical effect of a low base and a rise in food prices during the month, economists said.
WPI inflation fell to a two-year low of (-)0.58% in July because of a sharp fall in food prices and a statistical effect of a high base. It was 1.31% in August last year. The commerce ministry will release WPI data for August at 1200 IST on Monday.
The base effect in August is such that if the all commodities index remains unchanged from July, wholesale inflation would rise to (-)0.1% in August. A WPI inflation rate of 0.3% in August would translate to a 0.4% month-on-month rise in the all commodities index from July, slightly higher than the historical average sequential increase of 0.2% during August.
"The rise (in WPI inflation) was primarily broad-based as all three segments food, fuel and core gained momentum," Union Bank of India said in a report. "Food WPI spiked both on yearly basis as well as sequentially as food prices witnessed a broad-based month-on-month strengthening. Apart from fruits, milk and eggs-fish-and-meat segments, all other sub segments edged up during the month."
According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, wholesale prices of tomato increased 30% on month in August. Wholesale prices of edible oils, some pulses, and wheat also increased from July. Union Bank of India projects WPI food inflation rising to 0.2% in August from (-)2.2% in the previous month.
Core WPI inflation--or inflation excluding food and fuel items--is also expected to have risen in August because of higher metal prices, and adding to the increase in headline WPI inflaiton, economists said. Core WPI inflation is seen rising to around 1.4% in August from 1.1% in July.
The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in August:
| ORGANISATION | WPI INFLATION ESTIMATE |
| ICICI Bank | 0.06% |
| YES Bank | 0.17% |
| Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities | 0.29% |
| Standard Chartered | 0.3% |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 0.3% |
| CareEdge Ratings | 0.3% |
| India Ratings and Research | 0.4% |
| Union Bank of India | 0.45% |
| ICRA | 0.5% |
| Sunidhi Securities | 0.64% |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Vandana Hingorani
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