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EquityWirePositive Outlook: Govt hopes actual sugar output in 2025-26 is in line with ISMA's forecasts
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Govt hopes actual sugar output in 2025-26 is in line with ISMA's forecasts

This story was originally published at 20:28 IST on 11 September 2025
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Informist, Thursday, Sept. 11, 2025

 

--Food secy: Sugar mills cleared more than 96?ne dues in 2024-25 

--CONTEXT: Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra speaking at ISMA conference 

--Food secy: Hope 2025-26 actual sugar output is in line with ISMA forecasts 

--Food secy: Decision on sugar export contingent upon local output 

 

NEW DELHI – The government hopes that actual sugar production in 2025-26 (Oct-Sep) turns out to be in line with industry estimates, Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra said. For the last two years, actual sugar output has deviated sharply from early estimates as sugarcane yields and recovery declined as the season progressed.

 

"We are hoping the (production) numbers are correct and we do get flexibility in using this (sugar) production for various purposes, including ethanol and exports," Chopra said. The India Sugar & Bio-energy Manufacturers Association has forecast gross sugar production at 34.9 million tonnes, up 18% from last year. It also estimates carry-forward sugar stocks from 2024-25 at 5.2 million tonnes.

 

"After meeting domestic consumption of around 28.4 million tonnes, we will still have around 12 million tonnes available for ethanol diversion, exports, and buffer stock," ISMA President Gautam Goel said.

 

Citing surplus sugar production expected in the upcoming season, ISMA urged the government to allow 2 million tonnes of exports in 2025-26. "We humbly request the government to permit the export of 2 million tonnes of sugar in 2025-26, with an early policy announcement, so that mills can contract forward, secure better prices, plan their production, and maintain market balance," Goel said.

 

Chopra said the government is yet to decide on its export policy and this would be contingent on sugar production in 2025-26. In 2024-25, the government allowed mills to sell 1 million tonnes of sugar by September, of which mills are likely to ship only 800,000 tonnes.

 

According to industry officials, India exported less sugar than the quota because global sugar rates were not attractive to Indian exporters.

 

Goel said that if the government announces its export policy early this year, the industry can take better export calls as it would have a longer window to secure better prices. In the 2024-25 sugar season, the government announced the export quota in January.

 

According to ISMA, timely export announcements provide liquidity to the sector and enhance mills' capability to pay farmers on time. For the current sugar season 2024-25, sugar mills have cleared more than 96% of cane payments to farmers, Chopra said.

 

According to Goel, the sugar industry can supply 5 billion litres of ethanol by diverting some 4.5–5.0 million tonnes of sugar in 2025-26. In 2024-25, the industry is estimated to have diverted only 3.0–3.2 million tonnes of sugar for ethanol production.

 

Citing rising sugarcane costs, Goel urged the government to revise the rates of ethanol produced from sugarcane feedstocks. He further urged the government to hike the minimum selling price of sugar, which has remained unchanged since 2019 despite a steady rise in cane prices.  End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker and Pallavi Singhal

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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