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Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025

 

By Akash Mandal

 

MUMBAI – The Nifty 50 is likely to see a further upside of 200-300 points from its current level, and will possibly cross and sustain above the psychologically crucial 25000 points in the upcoming sessions, options data showed. This will be driven by investors covering their short positions after holding significant bearish positions in index futures last month, derivatives analysts said. While premiums on out-of-the-money call contracts expiring next Tuesday rose around 50%, those on put options declined, hinting at near-term optimism. 
 

On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 ended at 24973.10 points, up 104.50 points, or 0.4%, extending its winning run for the sixth straight session. The rally can be primarily attributed to the government's goods and services tax reforms and hopes of a trade deal between India and the US. 

 

"We are of the view that the 50-day simple moving average of 24920 level and the 24800 level will act as key support zones for traders," Shrikant Chouhan, head equity research at Kotak Securities, said in a note. As long as the index trades above these levels, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue, Chouhan said.

 

On the call side, traders aggressively bought the strike prices between 25100 and 26000 and premiums on these contracts increased 15-64%. The highest open interest concentration was at 25500-26000 strikes. The 25000 strike of call as well as put has the highest open interest concentration.  

 

Traders sold the 25000 put, implying that the 50-stock index is likely to sustain above this level. This contract also has the highest open interest addition of 8 million, followed by over 5 million addition at the 24000 strike. The 24900-24950 put strikes each saw more than 4 million open interest addition.

 

Long positions were added to the Nifty 50's futures segment, with open interest in the September contract rising over 4%, that in October up almost 3% and in the November series rose almost 14%. These contracts closed 0.5% higher each Wednesday at a premium to the spot level. 

 

Analysts have also turned more optimistic about Indian equities, with Jefferies saying that the price-to-earnings premium of India over rest of the emerging markets has dropped significantly. This is due to a sharp rally in other Asian markets in recent times, with benchmark indices in South Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore gaining 15-38% so far in 2025. In comparison, the Nifty 50 has gained just around 7% in the same period.

 

While concerns persist about an uptick in earnings growth, the government's goods and services tax rationalisation is seen aiding consumption and, hence, driving corporate earnings in the upcoming quarters. Meanwhile, there is a section of experts who believe that the GST reform is not enough to boost the growth of the economy as well as corporate financial growth. 

 

The optimism about a possible trade deal between India and the US, likely better earnings growth going forward, and a pickup in the government's capital expenditure are expected to push the market up in the near term. However, what could limit the upside of domestic equities include their underperformance on the global front, the depreciation of the rupee, fluctuation in crude oil prices, and the uncertainty about US tariffs.  

 

--Nifty 50 Sept. closed at 25079.00, up 128.70 points; 105.90-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 Oct. closed at 25193.00, up 127.70 points; 219.90-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 Nov. closed at 25315.00, up 133.20 points; 341.90-point premium to the spot index

 

Kotak Mahindra Bank, BSE, Oracle Financial Services Software, Infosys, Bharat Electronics, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank, Tata Motors, Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Aeronautics, and ICICI Bank were the most active underlying stocks Wednesday.  End

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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