More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025

MUMBAI – The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude oil prices to decline significantly in the coming months to average $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and around $50 per barrel in early 2026. Significant growth in global oil inventories will cause crude oil prices to fall as summer demand wanes and global oil supply growth accelerates, the agency said in its short-term energy outlook for September.

EIA expects global liquid fuels production in 2025 at 105.54 million barrels per day, higher than its previous projection of 105.36 million barrels per day. In 2026, it sees global liquid fuels production at 106.64 million barrels per day, also higher from its previous forecast of 106.35 million barrels per day. The agency expects global oil inventory builds will average 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025 and "will remain elevated through 2026, putting significant downward pressure on oil prices."

The planned production increases by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies and strong supply growth outside of the group continue to drive global liquid fuels production growth, the agency said. Countries outside the group are expected to increase total liquid fuels production growth by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 600,000 barrels per day in 2026, accounting for most of the overall growth.

Inventory builds will be highest in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, averaging 2.3 million barrels per day over that time, it said. "We forecast that inventory builds will moderate in 2026 due to a combination of higher global oil demand and slightly lower oil production growth, both in response to lower oil prices," EIA said. It expects Brent crude oil prices to average $51 per barrel in 2026, compared with an average of $68 per barrel in 2025. 

As for West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the US energy agency now expects prices to average $64.16 per barrel this year, slightly higher than its previous forecast of $63.58 per barrel. In 2026, the agency expects WTI prices to average $47.77 per barrel, unchanged from its previous estimate.

Meanwhile, global consumption of liquid fuels is seen at 103.81 million barrels per day in 2025, higher than the agency's earlier forecast of 103.72 million barrels per day. In 2026, it sees consumption of liquid fuels at 105.09 million barrels per day, higher than its previous forecast of 104.91 million barrels per day.

"Despite our assessment that global oil production has been much higher than demand this summer, we have yet to see a significant increase in observable oil inventories," the agency said. "This disconnect is likely the result of some of the excess production ending up in observable strategic reserves, particularly China, or other stockpiles used by countries for domestic consumption." At 1404 IST, the price of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was $67.07 per barrel and the price of WTI crude on NYMEX was $63.32 per barrel. End

US$1 = INR 88.09

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.