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Informist, Friday, Sept. 5, 2025

By Gopika Balasubramanium

MUMBAI – The benchmark indices are expected to be rangebound with a negative bias in the near-term because of weakness in the rupee and persistent selling by foreign investors. The wave of optimism from the restructuring of Goods and Services Tax has likely waned as stocks had already rallied in anticipation of the same since Aug. 15. Investors will keep an eye out for the US employment report for August, due later Friday, for cues on the rate cut trajectory in the US. India's consumer inflation data for August, which is due on Sept. 12, will also be on the minds of investors.

Technical analysts see Nifty 50 continue to be in a range till it rises above 25000 points. Analysts said it is important for the 50-stock index to hold the 24700 level for it to rise more and if it breaks this level, it is most likely to touch 24400-24500 points. "...in the short term, the trend looks sideways to slightly positive," Rupak De, technical analyst at LKP Securities, said in a note. He expects the Nifty 50 to climb to 25150 points if it moves "decisively above 24750 (points)" in the short term and sees the index find support at 24500 points.

On Friday, the Nifty 50 took support at 24600 points, and investors used 'buy on dips' at that level, helping the index to recover. On a closing basis, the Nifty 50 is also facing strong resistance at 24700-24750 points and has failed to break these levels for the third straight session. Technical analysts see the Nifty 50 find support at 24400-24500 points and face resistance at 25000-25100 points.

Investors will assess the US employment report for August to determine the US Federal Open Market Committee's interest rate trajectory. Data released Thursday showed initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US rose by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 237,000 for the week ended Aug. 30. The metric was higher than the consensus of 230,000, increasing hopes of a rate cut by the US Fed at its two-day policy meeting starting Sept. 16. At present, investors see an almost 100% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the upcoming meeting, as per CME FedWatch tool, higher than 86% a week ago.

India's inflation print for August would lend cues on the Reserve Bank of India's policy action going ahead. In August, the central bank had left the repo rate unchanged at 5.50% and retained its 'neutral' stance while cutting the 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) inflation forecast by 60 basis points to 3.1%. End

Edited by Ashish Shirke

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