More Stories

Informist, Sunday, Aug. 31, 2025

 

MUMBAI – Rainfall in September is likely to be above normal at 109% of the long-period average over most parts of the country, the India Meteorological Department said in its monthly outlook for rainfall and temperature on Sunday. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely for the rest of the southwest monsoon season and weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are seen between the end of September and the beginning of October, the weather department said.

 

The long-period average for rainfall over the country during September is about 167.9 mm, based on historical data from 1971 to 2020, the weather bureau said. "Some parts of northeast and east India, many parts of extreme south peninsular India, and some parts of northern-most India, are likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September," the department said. 

 

Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, along with other climate models, suggest that weak negative Indian Dipole conditions are likely to persist for a brief period at the end of the southwest monsoon, the department said. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, in its fortnightly report, had also said that the index is likely to turn increasingly 'negative' between September and November, which is in line with the predictions of other international weather models.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India while a positive index leads to more rainfall.

 

Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the southwest monsoon, the weather bureau said. Weak La Nina conditions are likely to develop in the last quarter of the calendar year 2025, though neutral conditions are expected to return post December, the bureau said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier, hotter weather in India while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

 

Average maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal-to-below-normal in most parts of the country in September, the weather department said. Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely in parts of east-central, east, and northeast India and some parts of northwest India and the western coastal region in September, the department said. The average minimum temperatures are expected to be normal-to-above-normal over most parts of the country while below-normal minimum temperatures are likely over some parts of northwest India and southern peninsular India, it said.

 

The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is likely to be normal this year, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, said. "If you look at the trend in recent years, the withdrawal is occurring late. We had to revise the withdrawal dates from Sept. 1 to Sept. 17 according to the change in the last 50 years' data. There is almost a 15-day delay. This year has been a good monsoon year, and we expect good monsoon activity in September... next two weeks (of September) there is no possibility of withdrawal of monsoon, at least as per data we have as of today," Mohapatra said. The withdrawal of the monsoon starts around Sept. 17, which was revised from Sept. 1 in 2020, and it withdraws from the entire country around Oct. 15.

 

In August, the country received 5.2% above-normal rainfall at 268.1 millimetres, the weather department said. Though the country recorded below-normal showers in the first two weeks of August due to unfavourable Madden Julian Oscillation conditions, it entered a favourable phase for rainfall in the second half of the month, it said. The Madden Julian Oscillation is an eastward moving 'pulse' of clouds, rainfall, winds and pressure near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days.

 

The formation of four low-pressure systems over the country also aided rainfall in August, the weather department said. Rainfall over northwest India was 34.4?ove normal at 265 millimetres, which is the highest for August since 2001, the department said. Rainfall over south peninsular India was the third-highest since 2001 at 250.6 millimetres, 31.4?ove normal. In central India, rainfall was 14.2?low normal at 265 millimetres in August while in east and northeast India it was 9?low normal at 302.3 millimetres.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.