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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2025

MUMBAI – Following are the highlights of the minutes of the Aug. 4-6 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, released by the central bank on Wednesday:

SANJAY MALHOTRA

* Growth at 6.5% resilient but lower than what we can achieve 

* Supply-side factors, supportive policy to boost growth FY26 

* Urban demand is likely to pick up during the festive season 

* Uncertainty in external demand, tariffs major drag on growth 

* Inflation to fall substantially near term on food prices 

* Monetary policy must remain watchful on external uncertainty 

NAGESH KUMAR

* Continuing challenges to sustainability of econ growth 

* Credit offtake not happened as expected despite lower rates 

* Diversification of markets for goods to be important going ahead 

* Negotiations of India-EU FTA need to be expedited 

* Private investment sentiment adversely affected by trade uncertainty 

* 25% US tariffs causing lot of anxiety about economic outlook 

* Lending rates to fall more in coming months as liquidity in surplus 

* 25% US tariff may hit India GDP growth by 20-30 bps 

* Threat of job losses more serious post 25% US tariff 

* Wish to wait, watch as transmission of existing steps happens 

* Diversification of markets for goods will be important 

* Wish to wait and watch to see how trade uncertainties play out 

* Can hold stance at neutral amid challenging econ environment 

SAUGATA BHATTACHARYA

* Need to step back, assess impact of rate, policy actions 

* Global supply chain dislocations uncertainty stays high 

* Tariffs to impact India growth adversely FY26, beyond 

* Tough to give modicum of forward guidance on uncertainty 

RAM SINGH

* Data signals lower food price momentum to continue in coming months

* Inflation outlook for FY26 very benign 

* Average core inflation likely to be above target range coming quarters

* Some stress signs associated with achieving 6.5% growth in FY26 

* Growth distress visible in US mkt-reliant MSMEs in some sectors 

* In normal situation, inflation prospects make case for rate cut 

* Unusually high uncertainty on inflation, growth calls for caution 

* Risk of imported inflation on uncertainty over commodity prices 

* Proposed CPI base year revision a downside risk for inflation 

* US Fed rate moves ahead to impact feasibility of RBI rate cut 

POONAM GUPTA

* Evolving growth-inflation dynamics have weighed on my vote 

* Financial mkt volatility still elevated; down from May-Jun peak 

* Geopolitical uncertainties still high; down from May-Jun peak 

* Trade uncertainties have aggravated for India 

* Indian economy remains resilient overall despite challenges 

* Favourable monsoon, low inflation supporting econ activity 

* Govt infra spend, monetary easing supporting econ activity 

* Moderation in Jun CPI not general, primarily food deflation 

* CPI likely to firm up above 4% in Q4; approach 5% Apr-Jun 2026 

* CPI may approach 5% Q1 FY27 even with moderate price momentum 

* Transmission of cumulative rate cut has been impressively rapid 

* Rate cut transmission still unfolding, to pick up in coming months

* Rate cut transmission to be helped by CRR cuts effective Sept 

* Cost, availability of funds not a material constraint to growth 

* New invest, consumption decisions hinge on structural factors 

* Do not see scope or rationale for further policy rate cut 

* Propose neutral stance so future actions can be data dependent 

RAJIV RANJAN

* Aug meet toughest in terms of deciding future policy course 

* Arguments were equally strong whether or not to cut rates Aug 

* Good case to be made that there is more room for policy easing 

* Arguments for status quo on rates, stance seemed to be stronger 

* Prudent to wait and watch to see transmission before more easing 

* Growth tracking earlier projections but still below aspirations 

* CPI risks make strong case to wait before further policy easing 

* Data-dependent approach leaves space to act on growth risks

End

Compiled by Gowri Lakshmi

Filed by Ashish Shirke

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