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Informist, Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2025

MUMBAI – There is an "enhanced" probability of above-normal rainfall in India from September to November, the APEC Climate Center has said in its monthly climate outlook for Sept-Feb. The centre's El Nino-Southern Oscillation alert system is currently in "La Nina Watch" mode, as weak La Nina conditions could emerge in October. However, chances of a full La Nina event are extremely weak, and neutral conditions are likely to prevail for the rest of the forecast period, it said.

In August and September, rainfall over the country is likely to be above normal at 106% of the long-period average, the India Meteorological Department has said in its outlook for the second half of the southwest monsoon season.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is expected to be (-)0.44 degrees Celsius in September, dipping to (-)0.58 degrees Celsius by October before climbing back to (-)0.04 degrees Celsius in February. For La Nina to emerge, surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius. For El Nino, temperatures should be at or above 0.5 degrees Celsius.

The probability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions begins at 48.7% in the first half of the forecast period, after which it is likely to increase to 55.3% for the rest of the period, showing a small probability of a La Nina event in the middle, the climate centre said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near-average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

Weak sea surface temperature anomalies are expected along the equator from September to November, with further weakening anticipated for the rest of the forecast period, the climate agency said. A negative anomaly refers to cooler-than-average temperatures on the ocean's surface, while a positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature is warmer than the reference value.

The climate centre has forecast a strong probability of above-normal temperatures for most of the globe, except the central and eastern tropical Pacific, India, Australia, and the coasts of subtropical Africa from September to November.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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